Dallas Mavericks vs Indiana Pacers Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-09

Dallas Mavericks

Home Team
84.2%
VS

Indiana Pacers

Away Team
15.8%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Dallas Mavericks

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +19.3 Dallas Mavericks
Home-court advantage +7.6 Dallas Mavericks
Recent team form +6.2 Dallas Mavericks
Home/road record +2.2 Dallas Mavericks
Lineup stability +1.3 Dallas Mavericks

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 84% for Dallas Mavericks. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Dallas Mavericks
PTS 6.3 REB 3.3 AST 1.0 3PM 0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 23.4 REB 7.4 AST 6.6 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.5 REB 6.4 AST 1.9 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.9 REB 4.6 AST 4.0 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.5 REB 7.0 AST 1.7 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Indiana Pacers
PTS 5.9 REB 7.8 AST 2.0 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.5 REB 3.8 AST 1.6 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.9 REB 3.4 AST 4.9 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 7.4 REB 3.7 AST 1.0 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 5.8 AST 3.0 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Caleb Martin
OR
122.3
DR
112.3
PTS
4.2
VS
Ivica Zubac
OR
108.4
DR
111.2
PTS
7.6
SG
Cooper Flagg
OR
123.6
DR
104.6
PTS
24.0
VS
Aaron Nesmith
OR
101.4
DR
116.1
PTS
12.1
SF
Daniel Gafford
OR
130.4
DR
106.8
PTS
9.8
VS
Andrew Nembhard
OR
119.9
DR
119.2
PTS
17.8
PF
Kyrie Irving
OR
120.1
DR
108.8
PTS
21.4
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
101.2
DR
118.5
PTS
8.5
C
P.J. Washington
OR
108.1
DR
110.9
PTS
14.8
VS
Pascal Siakam
OR
112.2
DR
113.9
PTS
21.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Dallas is a strong favorite, with an 84% chance to win. The expected starters are Caleb Martin, Cooper Flagg, Daniel Gafford, Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington for Dallas, and Ivica Zubac, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Pascal Siakam for Indiana.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 225 combined points, with Dallas favored by 14. That points to a productive game, but a comfortable Dallas win rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 224.6 Most likely outcome: 224 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Dallas Mavericks - Indiana Pacers) 13.5 Most likely outcome: 13 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Dallas’s rating has been roughly stable over the last five games, while Indiana’s has fallen.

Dallas Mavericks

1518.6 -3.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Brooklyn Nets 1518.6 +10.2
2026-11-06 Utah Jazz 1508.4 +8.1
2026-11-04 San Antonio Spurs 1500.3 -8.4
2026-11-02 Sacramento Kings 1508.7 -13.6
2026-10-30 Houston Rockets 1522.3 -

Indiana Pacers

1458.7 -19.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Denver Nuggets 1458.7 -10.3
2026-11-04 Memphis Grizzlies 1469.0 +12.5
2026-11-02 Atlanta Hawks 1456.5 -9.8
2026-11-01 Brooklyn Nets 1466.3 -11.9
2026-10-30 Miami Heat 1478.2 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 in last 5
W W L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 130 93 +37
Utah Jazz 112 100 +12
San Antonio Spurs 111 112 -1
Sacramento Kings 100 115 -15
Houston Rockets 116 111 +5

Indiana Pacers

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 102 114 -12
Memphis Grizzlies 107 103 +4
Atlanta Hawks 104 108 -4
Brooklyn Nets 90 98 -8
Miami Heat 125 145 -20

Game Analysis

The expected starting groups are the clearest separation: Dallas has the stronger mix of production at both ends, and the model leans most heavily on that matchup. Playing at home adds to the advantage, while Dallas has won two of its last three, including a 37-point victory over Brooklyn. Indiana’s recent results have been less consistent, and its rating trend is moving in the wrong direction. Siakam’s scoring gives the Pacers a strong option to counter Dallas’s forward scoring, but Indiana will need more support from its starters to keep pace.

Final Prediction

Siakam matching Dallas’s forward scoring is a specific path for Indiana to make this more competitive. If he cannot, Dallas’s advantage across the expected starting five will be difficult to overcome.

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