Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-09

Golden State Warriors

Home Team
62.9%
VS

New Orleans Pelicans

Away Team
37.1%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Golden State Warriors

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 Golden State Warriors
Season record & ratings +1.7 New Orleans Pelicans
Rest & schedule +1.5 Golden State Warriors
Home/road record +1.5 Golden State Warriors
Lineup stability +1.1 Golden State Warriors

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Golden State Warriors. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Golden State Warriors
PTS 15.1 REB 5.9 AST 3.3 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.0 REB 5.8 AST 6.7 3PM 0.4
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.4 REB 4.6 AST 0.9 3PM 0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 27.9 REB 5.0 AST 4.5 3PM 3.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.4 REB 7.0 AST 3.6 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 14.6 REB 5.6 AST 3.7 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.0 REB 5.5 AST 3.7 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.2 REB 5.5 AST 1.3 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.3 REB 5.2 AST 2.8 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.7 REB 6.6 AST 2.5 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Brandin Podziemski
OR
128.2
DR
111.5
PTS
15.8
VS
Dejounte Murray
OR
105.6
DR
117.9
PTS
14.9
SG
Draymond Green
OR
101.2
DR
110.4
PTS
2.9
VS
Jeremiah Fears
OR
103.2
DR
117.1
PTS
15.8
SF
Gui Santos
OR
117.3
DR
117.6
PTS
6.6
VS
Karlo Matković
OR
121.8
DR
112.9
PTS
9.6
PF
Stephen Curry
OR
141.6
DR
113.0
PTS
31.2
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
118.4
DR
119.8
PTS
15.6
C
Yaxel Lendeborg
OR
113.8
DR
114.7
PTS
21.2
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
131.9
DR
114.5
PTS
21.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Golden State is favored to win, with a 63% chance according to the forecast. The Warriors are expected to start Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Stephen Curry and Yaxel Lendeborg, while New Orleans is expected to start Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matković, Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 238 points, suggesting a high-scoring game. A 10-point margin for Golden State points to a comfortable home win rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 238.2 Most likely outcome: 238 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Golden State Warriors - New Orleans Pelicans) 9.9 Most likely outcome: 10 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Golden State’s rating has risen steadily over its last five games, while New Orleans’ has fallen slightly.

Golden State Warriors

1540.3 +33.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Orlando Magic 1540.3 +7.3
2026-11-05 Miami Heat 1533.0 +9.1
2026-11-02 Phoenix Suns 1523.9 +8.6
2026-11-01 Los Angeles Clippers 1515.3 +8.9
2026-10-30 Los Angeles Lakers 1506.4 -

New Orleans Pelicans

1480.9 -1.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Los Angeles Clippers 1480.9 -11.7
2026-11-06 Minnesota Timberwolves 1492.6 -10.1
2026-11-04 Utah Jazz 1502.7 +8.1
2026-11-02 Memphis Grizzlies 1494.6 +12.1
2026-10-31 Atlanta Hawks 1482.5 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Golden State Warriors

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 126 119 +7
Miami Heat 120 100 +20
Phoenix Suns 116 113 +3
Los Angeles Clippers 124 112 +12
Los Angeles Lakers 112 95 +17

New Orleans Pelicans

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Los Angeles Clippers 123 139 -16
Minnesota Timberwolves 109 115 -6
Utah Jazz 120 113 +7
Memphis Grizzlies 135 134 +1
Atlanta Hawks 121 99 +22

Game Analysis

Home court is the clearest separator: Golden State’s advantage at home, along with the schedule and lineup stability, outweighs New Orleans’ slight edge in season record and ratings. The Warriors have won three straight, while the Pelicans have lost two in a row, including a 16-point defeat to the Clippers. Stephen Curry is the most productive scorer among the listed starters, and Zion Williamson gives New Orleans a potent scoring answer. If Zion can keep scoring against Golden State’s defense, he could help the Pelicans take advantage of their slight season-rating edge and challenge the home side.

Final Prediction

New Orleans can overturn the forecast if Zion’s scoring becomes the game’s dominant force and puts pressure on Golden State to trade baskets rather than rely on its home-court advantage.

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