Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-10

Philadelphia 76ers

Home Team
56.2%
VS

Boston Celtics

Away Team
43.8%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Philadelphia 76ers

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 Philadelphia 76ers
Recent team form +3.0 Philadelphia 76ers
Season record & ratings +1.2 Boston Celtics
Home/road record +0.7 Boston Celtics

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 56% for Philadelphia 76ers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 17.5 REB 8.8 AST 3.6 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.4 REB 6.6 AST 3.7 3PM 2.0
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.0 REB 7.0 AST 5.9 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.4 REB 4.2 AST 5.0 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.3 REB 6.0 AST 2.8 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Boston Celtics
PTS 9.5 REB 7.4 AST 1.5 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.1 REB 4.2 AST 4.2 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 25.2 REB 5.9 AST 6.4 3PM 2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 2.0 REB 1.9 AST 0.5 3PM 0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.9 REB 5.4 AST 3.7 3PM 2.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Joel Embiid
OR
98.0
DR
105.6
PTS
17.9
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
123.2
DR
108.5
PTS
9.5
SG
Jaylen Brown
OR
113.7
DR
109.8
PTS
22.3
VS
Derrick White
OR
115.8
DR
109.3
PTS
12.9
SF
LeBron James
OR
103.2
DR
104.8
PTS
15.6
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
123.9
DR
108.6
PTS
27.1
PF
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.9
DR
109.8
PTS
26.9
VS
Mike Conley
OR
98.8
DR
100.8
PTS
3.0
C
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.5
DR
106.6
PTS
13.2
VS
Paul George
OR
109.0
DR
102.1
PTS
20.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia is a slight favorite, with a 56% chance to win. The expected starters are Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe for Philadelphia, and Neemias Queta, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Mike Conley and Paul George for Boston.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 233 points, with Philadelphia favored by about five. That points to a close game with plenty of scoring.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.1 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Philadelphia 76ers - Boston Celtics) 5.5 Most likely outcome: 5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are rising over their last five games, with Boston’s increase slightly stronger.

Philadelphia 76ers

1558.0 +13.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Chicago Bulls 1558.0 +7.7
2026-11-06 Cleveland Cavaliers 1550.3 -13.4
2026-11-04 Detroit Pistons 1563.7 +11.0
2026-11-02 Chicago Bulls 1552.7 +7.8
2026-10-31 Charlotte Hornets 1544.9 -

Boston Celtics

1555.4 +17.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Milwaukee Bucks 1555.4 +8.5
2026-11-06 Charlotte Hornets 1546.9 +11.4
2026-11-04 Milwaukee Bucks 1535.5 +7.3
2026-11-02 Houston Rockets 1528.2 -9.8
2026-11-01 Orlando Magic 1538.0 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 in last 5
W L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 127 121 +6
Cleveland Cavaliers 95 119 -24
Detroit Pistons 112 106 +6
Chicago Bulls 126 107 +19
Charlotte Hornets 109 104 +5

Boston Celtics

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 117 97 +20
Charlotte Hornets 119 80 +39
Milwaukee Bucks 109 102 +7
Houston Rockets 93 109 -16
Orlando Magic 108 97 +11

Game Analysis

Philadelphia’s home-court advantage is the biggest reason for its narrow forecast lead, despite Boston’s slight edge in season-level ratings and home-road record. The Sixers have won two of their last three, but Boston arrives on a three-game winning streak, including two decisive victories. Tyrese Maxey and Jayson Tatum are the clearest scoring threats among the listed starters, each averaging 27 points. Their scoring gives both teams a strong option to answer the other’s offense, while Boston’s recent run offers a real counter to Philadelphia’s home advantage.

Final Prediction

If Tatum keeps producing at his usual scoring level, Boston can make Philadelphia’s home-court advantage less decisive.

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