Indiana Pacers vs Washington Wizards Prediction
NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-11
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
35.5%
VS
Washington Wizards
Away Team
64.5%
Why the Model Favors Washington Wizards
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 65% for Washington Wizards. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Indiana Pacers
Ivica Zubac
PTS
9.8
REB
7.4
AST
2.4
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Aaron Nesmith
PTS
14.3
REB
3.8
AST
2.3
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Andrew Nembhard
PTS
16.9
REB
3.5
AST
6.2
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Braden Smith
PTS
6.8
REB
2.8
AST
2.6
3PM
0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Pascal Siakam
PTS
20.4
REB
6.4
AST
4.3
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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AWAY Washington Wizards
AJ Dybantsa
PTS
17.6
REB
6.6
AST
2.4
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Alex Sarr
PTS
10.9
REB
7.9
AST
1.4
3PM
1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Anthony Davis
PTS
24.2
REB
9.6
AST
2.4
3PM
1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Kyshawn George
PTS
17.5
REB
4.9
AST
4.5
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Trae Young
PTS
18.6
REB
4.0
AST
6.8
3PM
2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Ivica Zubac
OR
112.5
DR
114.0
PTS
9.0
VS
AJ Dybantsa
OR
102.6
DR
115.9
PTS
16.7
SG
Aaron Nesmith
OR
100.3
DR
117.0
PTS
12.8
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
112.5
DR
110.9
PTS
9.9
SF
Andrew Nembhard
OR
119.7
DR
120.0
PTS
17.1
VS
Anthony Davis
OR
113.6
DR
107.2
PTS
25.7
PF
Braden Smith
OR
64.2
DR
116.9
PTS
3.8
VS
Kyshawn George
OR
107.5
DR
116.3
PTS
17.9
C
Pascal Siakam
OR
115.9
DR
114.2
PTS
22.2
VS
Trae Young
OR
110.5
DR
117.1
PTS
18.5
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Washington is favored to win, with a 65% chance in the forecast. The expected starters are Ivica Zubac, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, Braden Smith and Pascal Siakam for Indiana, and AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Anthony Davis, Kyshawn George and Trae Young for Washington.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected total is 227 points, with Washington favored by about two. That points to a close, fairly high-scoring game.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
227.0
Most likely outcome: 227 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Washington Wizards)
-1.7
Most likely outcome: -2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Both teams’ ratings are falling over the last five games, with Washington’s decline steeper than Indiana’s.
Indiana Pacers
1451.2
-15.1 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Dallas Mavericks | 1451.2 | -7.5 |
| 2026-11-07 | Denver Nuggets | 1458.7 | -10.3 |
| 2026-11-04 | Memphis Grizzlies | 1469.0 | +12.5 |
| 2026-11-02 | Atlanta Hawks | 1456.5 | -9.8 |
| 2026-11-01 | Brooklyn Nets | 1466.3 | - |
Washington Wizards
1471.2
-40.5 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | Detroit Pistons | 1471.2 | -8.5 |
| 2026-11-07 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1479.7 | -10.5 |
| 2026-11-06 | Atlanta Hawks | 1490.2 | -9.5 |
| 2026-11-04 | Atlanta Hawks | 1499.7 | -12.0 |
| 2026-11-02 | Orlando Magic | 1511.7 | - |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Indiana Pacers
1-4 in last 5
L
L
W
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 122 | 125 | -3 | |
| Denver Nuggets | 102 | 114 | -12 | |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 107 | 103 | +4 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 104 | 108 | -4 | |
| Brooklyn Nets | 90 | 98 | -8 |
Washington Wizards
1-4 in last 5
L
L
L
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 111 | 122 | -11 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 75 | 114 | -39 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 132 | 139 | -7 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 105 | 120 | -15 | |
| Orlando Magic | 103 | 94 | +9 |
Game Analysis
The starting groups are the clearest separator in the forecast. Washington has several scoring options, led by Davis, whose listed average is 26 points, while Siakam is Indiana’s top listed scorer at 22. Indiana’s home court and its slight advantages in season record and recent form help offset that gap.
Recent results give Indiana a modestly better backdrop: the Pacers have one win in their last three, including a close loss to Dallas, while Washington has lost three straight, including a 39-point defeat to Oklahoma City. Still, the forecast gives greater weight to the expected starting lineups than to those short-term results.
Final Prediction
Indiana’s best route to changing the outlook is for Siakam to make the most of his scoring advantage over Washington’s other starters. If the Pacers can keep the game close at home, the narrow projected margin leaves room for an upset.
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