Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Adam Walton vs Jakub Mensik: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Adam Walton

Rank: #85
32%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #13
68%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Ranking Trends

Adam Walton

  • Current Rank: #85 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #78 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #76 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #86 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #89 (2025-03-17)

Jakub Mensik

  • Current Rank: #13 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #19 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #17 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #17 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #54 (2025-03-17)

Player Metrics

Adam Walton

Form Index: 50.8
ELO Rating: 787.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1568.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 280.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 6.3
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 79.3
Return Rating: 59.1

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 2025.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1652.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.7
Clay: 16.3
Grass: 16.4
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Adam Walton
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Baez (2-0) hard Miami 67 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-1) hard Miami 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Chris Rodesch (2-0) hard Miami 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Indian Wells 104 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Indian Wells 77 min

Jakub Mensik
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (1-2) hard Indian Wells 125 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-0) hard Indian Wells 104 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (1-2) hard Dubai 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-0) hard Dubai 64 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-0) hard Dubai 88 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adam Walton
vs
0
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters in Florida, the Round of 64 produces a compelling hard-court clash between Adam Walton and Jakub Mensik. The model backs Jakub Mensik to advance, assigning him a 67.67% chance of victory versus a 32.33% chance for Walton, with an expected total of roughly 23.94 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Jakub Mensik arrives as the clear rating favourite: world No. 13 with an Elo of 2025.5, versus Walton’s No. 85 and Elo of 787.7. Form indices are close (Walton 50.81, Mensik 51.12), but the physical and technical edges lie with Mensik. Walton carries 280 minutes of court time at this event, which suggests accumulated fatigue, while Mensik shows zero tournament minutes and will be fresher coming into Miami. Surface strength indices are both modest but favour Mensik (Walton 6.49, Mensik 16.70). Serve and return profiles create a stark contrast. Mensik’s mean serve index (97.70) comfortably outstrips Walton’s (79.31) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (89.71) dwarfs Walton’s (59.11) — differences that point to Mensik dominating both engines of the game. Over the last three matches Walton has ridden Miami momentum with three consecutive wins, including straight-set wins in the early rounds and a longer three-setter versus Rinky Hijikata. Mensik’s recent form is mixed: a strong win over Marcos Giron but defeats to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Tallon Griekspoor, indicating high-level ability but some inconsistency.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match sits at about 13.22 total; the predicted aces skew toward Mensik given his substantially higher serve rating. The expected double faults total is 4.4, a modest number consistent with the surface. Hard courts typically produce a balanced number of aces and the predicted aces reflect Mensik’s firepower; the double faults prediction also fits a match where one big server should still keep errors reasonably contained.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mensik’s superior Elo, dominant serve-and-return indices and comparative freshness give him the decisive edge. The key factor to watch will be whether Walton can overcome fatigue and generate early breaks against Mensik’s strong serve; if he cannot, Mensik should close it out relatively comfortably.

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