Adam Walton vs Nicolas Mejia: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Walton comes mainly from his recent record by level, supported by additional gains from overall strength, serve and return metrics, and lower recent workload. Walton sits at world No. 97 compared with Mejia at No. 129, a ranking gap that feeds into the model favoring Walton for overall standing. Elo paints a different picture, with Mejia on 1667.67 and Walton on 1579.52, which helps explain why recent form moved a small amount toward Mejia in the engine. Fatigue is a clear differential. Walton arrives with zero minutes logged in this event, while Mejia already has 283 minutes on court, a factor that nudges the prediction toward Walton. Serve and return profiles are similar. Walton posts a mean serve index of 96.47 and a mean return index of 88.07. Mejia records 94.28 on serve and 87.06 on return. Those numbers are close enough that no single player dominates the serving battle on paper. Walton’s surface strength index is 18.72 versus Mejia’s 17.53, both modest on this scale. Recent matches show contrasting patterns. Walton is 1 win and 2 losses in his last three, including a straight sets defeat to Jenson Brooksby and a three set loss in Los Cabos, with one 2-0 win over Justin Boulais. Mejia has been in better recent form at Cincinnati with two wins (over Henrique Rocha and Jacob Fearnley) and a prior loss to Lorenzo Musetti.