Beijing China Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Adrian Mannarino vs Alexander Bublik Prediction

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #53
35%
VS

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #19
65%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Ranking Trends

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current Rank: #53 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #125 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #145 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #66 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #53 (2024-09-30)

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #19 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #30 (2025-06-23)
  • 6 Months Ago: #80 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #33 (2024-12-23)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2024-09-30)

Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 62.8
ELO Rating: 1115.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1692.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 175.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.2
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 87.6

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 74.1
ELO Rating: 1852.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1760.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.8
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 86.2

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) hard Beijing 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrea Vavassori (2-0) hard Beijing 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Hangzhou 171 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jiri Lehecka (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-0) hard Hangzhou 61 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Hangzhou 53 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-1) hard Hangzhou 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tommy Paul (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adrian Mannarino
vs
0
Alexander Bublik
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Beijing tournament, both Adrian Mannarino and Alexander Bublik will face off on hard courts. Given the current form and statistics, Alexander Bublik is predicted to win with a probability of 65.23%, while Adrian Mannarino's chances stand at 34.77%. The expected total number of games played in this encounter is 23.

Match Analysis

Adrian Mannarino, ranked 53rd, has a form index of 62.78 and an Elo rating of 1115.75. He has accumulated significant fatigue of 175 minutes during the current tournament, which may impact his performance. His surface strength index is relatively modest at 11.21, while his mean serve index is slightly higher at 96.53 compared to his mean return index of 87.56. In contrast, Alexander Bublik, ranked 19th, boasts a form index of 74.06 and a much higher Elo rating of 1852.49. Notably, Bublik has zero accumulated fatigue, indicating he is fresh and ready for the match. His surface strength index of 10.84 is comparable to Mannarino's, but his mean serve index is slightly lower at 95.50, while his mean return index at 86.21 is also within a close range. Over their last three matches, Mannarino has performed well, winning two matches in Beijing without losing a set, but he faced a tough defeat against Yibing Wu prior to that. Bublik's recent performances have been impressive as well, winning all three of his last matches in Hangzhou convincingly. His recent form shows consistency and effectiveness, with two of those matches concluding in under an hour.

Final Prediction

Alexander Bublik's fresh condition, higher ranking, and superior form index give him a significant advantage heading into this match. A key factor to watch will be Bublik's ability to maintain his momentum and exploit Mannarino's accumulated fatigue, which could play a crucial role in the outcome of their encounter.