Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Adrian Mannarino vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #73
13%
VS

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #5
87%
Expected Total Games: 24.8
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Why the Model Favors Daniil Medvedev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.8 Daniil Medvedev
Surface fit +7.4 Daniil Medvedev
Overall strength +5.2 Daniil Medvedev
Serve & return game +4.9 Daniil Medvedev
Age +3.9 Daniil Medvedev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 87% for Daniil Medvedev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #73 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #47 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #46 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #69 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-10-27

Daniil Medvedev

  • Current #5 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #7 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #12 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 1740.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1690.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 479.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.1
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 22.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.5

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 60.7
ELO Rating: 1969.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1935.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 238.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 50.7
Clay: 28.8
Grass: 24.1
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 89.2

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Daniil Medvedev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adrian Mannarino
vs
1
Daniil Medvedev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

Daniil Medvedev is the clear favourite, with an 87% win probability to Adrian Mannarino’s 13%, and 24.8 total games expected. The estimate allows for a substantial contest despite the heavy tilt in win chances.

Match Analysis

Medvedev’s No. 5 ranking compared with Mannarino’s No. 73 reflects a broad difference in overall strength. He is also the stronger hard-court player, and his Vienna win over Cameron Norrie is a notable result against higher-level opposition. Mannarino has won three straight matches here, including straight-set victories over Jakub Mensik and Alex Molcan. But he has spent 479 minutes on court this tournament, more than twice Medvedev’s 238, adding a significant workload disadvantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.8 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Adrian Mannarino - Daniil Medvedev) -5.0 Most likely spread: -6 (Daniil Medvedev wins 6 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Mannarino is projected for 4.0 aces and 1.8 double faults, while Medvedev is projected for 9.7 aces and 3.0 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, but the hard court’s consistent bounce gives both chances to earn aces, with Medvedev expected to produce more.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.3 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Adrian Mannarino 4.0 + Daniil Medvedev 9.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Adrian Mannarino 1.8 + Daniil Medvedev 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 4.0 aces

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 9.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 1.8 double faults

Daniil Medvedev

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

38.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Adrian Mannarino's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (56.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Mannarino’s three-match winning streak, especially his straight-set win over Mensik, is his clearest basis for an upset. He will need to sustain that level against a stronger hard-court opponent.

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