Adrian Mannarino vs Lorenzo Sonego: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Sonego comes mainly from recent form and age. Sonego posts a higher form index (44.45 versus Mannarino 27.82) and a superior Elo rating (1622.26 versus 1509.86). Those factors combine with a slightly better surface strength index for Sonego (22.65 versus Mannarino 18.19) to push the prediction his way. Mannarino benefits from zero cumulative fatigue in this event versus Sonego’s 159 minutes, a workload factor that moves the projection modestly toward Mannarino, but not enough to offset Sonego’s form and Elo advantage. Looking at profiles, Mannarino is the higher-ranked player (52 to 88) and brings a very strong mean return index (89.50) alongside an elite mean serve index (96.11). Sonego posts a comparable mean serve index (96.04) and a solid return index (85.51). Neither player has a serve index gap greater than five points, so serve ratings are essentially matched. Recent results tell the same story: Mannarino has lost his last three matches on hard courts in straight sets, while Sonego has two wins in his last three, including a 2-1 victory at Winston-Salem over Pierre-Hugues Herbert and a straight-sets win over Juncheng Shang in Cincinnati. Those recent outcomes feed the model’s preference for Sonego.