Shanghai Shanghai Hard Masters 1000 Semifinals

Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #2
78%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
22%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Why the Model Favors Alexander Zverev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.4 Alexander Zverev
Overall strength +6.9 Alexander Zverev
Surface fit +6.2 Alexander Zverev
Serve & return game +5.2 Alexander Zverev
Overall record & opposition quality +3.3 Alexander Zverev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 78% for Alexander Zverev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #2 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #3 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #3 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #3 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-09-29

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #26 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #14 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 70.9
ELO Rating: 2175.9
Glicko2 Rating: 2081.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 465.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 63.4
Clay: 57.1
Grass: 48.7
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 89.9

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 73.3
ELO Rating: 1921.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1826.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 384.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.6
Clay: 24.9
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alexander Zverev
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alexander Zverev is favored at 78% to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s 22%. The expected total is 23.3 games.

Match Analysis

Zverev’s ranking advantage, at No. 2 to Davidovich Fokina’s No. 26, reflects the gap in their overall level. He also has the stronger hard-court profile, and his straight-sets win over Alex de Minaur capped a run of three Shanghai victories. Davidovich Fokina has won his last three matches too, including victories over Hubert Hurkacz and Frances Tiafoe. But Zverev holds the edge in both serve and return, giving him more ways to control the exchanges and a stronger basis for the forecast.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Zverev - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) +3.2 Most likely spread: +3 (Alexander Zverev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Zverev is projected to hit 8.9 aces, compared with 4.0 for Davidovich Fokina. The expected double-fault counts are 1.7 and 2.0 respectively, with Zverev’s stronger serve helping explain the difference in projected aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.7 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Alexander Zverev 8.9 + Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 4.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.6 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Alexander Zverev 1.7 + Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Zverev

Expected 8.9 aces

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 4.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Zverev

Expected 1.7 double faults

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Zverev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (50.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s return is close to Zverev’s, which gives him a specific way to disrupt the favorite’s advantage. If he can apply sustained pressure in return games, the forecast could tighten.

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