Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Arthur Gea vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Prediction

Arthur Gea

Rank: #56
45%
VS

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
55%
Expected Total Games: 25.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Why the Model Favors Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +4.7 Arthur Gea
Overall strength +4.6 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Surface fit +3.9 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Age +2.0 Arthur Gea
Serve & return game +0.7 Arthur Gea

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Arthur Gea

  • Current #56 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #136 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #137 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #241 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #249 2025-09-29

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #26 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #14 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Arthur Gea

Form Index: 73.4
ELO Rating: 1879.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1865.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 455.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.3
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 90.2

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 67.8
ELO Rating: 1887.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1816.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 362.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.6
Clay: 24.9
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Arthur Gea
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (2-0) hard Shanghai 97 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (2-0) hard Shanghai 127 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (2-1) hard Shanghai 125 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Hubert Hurkacz (1-2) hard Beijing 143 min

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Gea
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is a narrow pick, at 55% to Arthur Gea’s 45%, with 25.0 games expected. This Shanghai quarterfinal brings together Gea’s strong recent run and Davidovich Fokina’s slight overall advantage.

Match Analysis

Gea has won all three of his recent matches, including straight-set wins over Ben Shelton and Jakub Mensik. His stronger return profile gives him a way to put pressure on Davidovich Fokina’s service games. Davidovich Fokina is ranked No. 26, ahead of Gea at No. 56, and the forecast favours him for overall strength and hard-court fit. He has also beaten Frances Tiafoe and Hubert Hurkacz in Shanghai. Gea’s better recent results keep the matchup close, but Davidovich Fokina has spent 93 fewer minutes on court in the tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.0 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Arthur Gea - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Gea is projected for 6.6 aces and 2.9 double faults, while Davidovich Fokina is projected for 3.9 aces and 2.0 double faults. Despite Davidovich Fokina’s slightly stronger serve profile, Gea is forecast to hit more aces, with the hard court’s consistent bounce offering both players a steady platform to serve from.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.5 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Arthur Gea 6.6 + Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 3.9
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Arthur Gea 2.9 + Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 2.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Arthur Gea

Expected 6.6 aces

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 3.9 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Arthur Gea

Expected 2.9 double faults

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 2.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

34.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Arthur Gea's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Gea’s returning is the specific threat to the favourite. If he can make Davidovich Fokina work through service games, his recent form could tip this close forecast his way.

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