Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Davidovich Fokina arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 24) with an Elo of 1714.6, a form index of 42.0, zero minutes of tournament fatigue, and a surface strength index of 43.9. Carreño Busta is ranked 94, with a lower Elo (1605.7) but a stronger recent form index (57.5); however he carries 147 minutes of fatigue into this match and posts a slightly lower surface strength index (38.6). The contrast in serving metrics is notable: Carreño’s mean serve index (97.2) is far above Davidovich’s (70.3), and Carreño also posts a much higher mean return index (89.7 vs 67.3), so both serve and return index gaps exceed 5 points. Recent results accentuate the narrative. Davidovich is 1–2 in his last three matches (all on hard courts), with a straight-sets loss in Miami and a deeper run at Indian Wells where he split two longer matches. Carreño has also gone 1–2 over his last three, but his most recent win came in Madrid — a physically demanding 147-minute encounter — bookending two earlier losses on clay and hard courts. That heavy recent workload is a clear factor on demanding slow courts.