Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Finals

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rafael Jodar Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #26
47%
VS

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #13
53%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Rafael Jodar

Why the Model Favors Rafael Jodar

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Age +2.9 Rafael Jodar
Serve & return game +2.7 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Overall record & opposition quality +2.4 Rafael Jodar
Overall strength +2.0 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Recent record by level +1.9 Rafael Jodar

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Rafael Jodar. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #26 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #17 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #14 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-09-29

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #13 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #26 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #57 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #165 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #309 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 81.7
ELO Rating: 1982.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1840.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 506.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.5
Clay: 24.9
Grass: 32.3
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 90.4

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 70.9
ELO Rating: 1979.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1946.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 678.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 45.7
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 12.1
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 89.5

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-0) hard Shanghai 104 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Casper Ruud (2-1) hard Shanghai 140 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) hard Shanghai 150 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (2-1) hard Shanghai 162 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-1) hard Shanghai 122 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
0
Rafael Jodar
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rafael Jodar is a slight favorite, with a 53% win probability to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina’s 47%. The forecast is for 24.6 total games in the Shanghai Finals.

Match Analysis

Jodar’s recent run gives him a strong case: he beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets, after wins over Casper Ruud and Botic van de Zandschulp. His higher ranking and results against that opposition point to an advantage in overall record and recent level. Davidovich Fokina has the stronger serve-and-return profile, and his wins over Alexander Zverev and Hubert Hurkacz underline the threat he poses. Jodar’s age profile favors him, but he has also spent 678 minutes on court this tournament, 172 more than Davidovich Fokina, a meaningful difference heading into the final.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Rafael Jodar) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Rafael Jodar wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Davidovich Fokina is projected for 4.2 aces and 1.6 double faults, while Jodar is projected for 4.5 aces and 1.7 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, which fits the narrow gap in expected aces on this hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.7 Most likely: 6 aces Per player: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 4.2 + Rafael Jodar 4.5
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.2 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1.6 + Rafael Jodar 1.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 4.2 aces

Rafael Jodar

Expected 4.5 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Expected 1.6 double faults

Rafael Jodar

Expected 1.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (31.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s stronger serve and return could overturn the forecast if he makes that advantage count in the rallies. Jodar’s greater workload is another potential opening for the underdog.

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