Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Reilly Opelka vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #62
37%
VS
Expected Total Games: 39.9
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Player Metrics

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 64.4
ELO Rating: 872.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1540.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.5
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 13.4

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 71.2
ELO Rating: 2371.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 47.9
Clay: 58.9
Grass: 65.3
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 94.7

Recent Matches

Reilly Opelka

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Reilly Opelka
vs
0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the 2026 Australian Open, Reilly Opelka faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina on hard courts in Australia. The predicted outcome favors Davidovich Fokina, who holds a 62.59% chance of victory compared to Opelka's 37.41%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 39.94, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka is currently ranked 62 with a form index of 64.45 and an Elo rating of 872.49. His fatigue level is high, having accumulated 174 minutes in the current tournament, which may affect his performance. Opelka's surface strength index stands at 7.50, and he boasts a mean serve index of 96.54, providing him with strong serving capabilities. However, his mean return index of 13.41 indicates a relative weakness in returning serves. In his last three matches, Opelka has had mixed results; he won convincingly against Nicolai Budkov Kjaer but suffered a loss to Tommy Paul in Adelaide. In contrast, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is ranked 15 and showcases a stronger form index of 71.17 and an Elo rating of 2371.46, reflecting his solid performance on the tour. His fatigue level is also at 174 minutes, but his surface strength index is considerably higher at 47.88, suggesting better adaptability to hard courts. Davidovich Fokina's mean serve index is slightly higher at 97.21, and his mean return index is significantly stronger at 94.65, indicating his prowess in returning serves. Recently, he secured a comprehensive victory over Filip Misolic while facing a setback against Ugo Humbert.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.9 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Reilly Opelka versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Reilly Opelka versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Reilly Opelka - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Reilly Opelka versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Positive values indicate Reilly Opelka winning more games, negative values indicate Alejandro Davidovich Fokina winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Reilly Opelka versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to yield around 10.57 aces and 4.47 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which balances both serving and returning abilities, the predicted aces align with the capabilities of both players, particularly Opelka's serve strength. However, with Davidovich Fokina's superior return index, he may effectively minimize Opelka's ace count while contributing to a higher number of expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Reilly Opelka versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Reilly Opelka versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Reilly Opelka versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Reilly Opelka versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's superior ranking, form index, and return capabilities provide him with a distinct edge over Reilly Opelka. His ability to neutralize powerful serves could be a crucial factor in determining the match's outcome, making it essential to watch how effectively he handles Opelka's serve.

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