Adelaide Australia Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Rinky Hijikata Prediction

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #14
60%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #111
40%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Ranking Trends

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current Rank: #14 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #20 (2025-10-13)
  • 6 Months Ago: #26 (2025-07-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #30 (2025-04-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #66 (2025-01-13)

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current Rank: #111 (2026-01-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #114 (2025-10-13)
  • 6 Months Ago: #80 (2025-07-14)
  • 9 Months Ago: #85 (2025-04-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #72 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 47.8
ELO Rating: 2489.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 49.9
Clay: 57.9
Grass: 66.1
Serve Rating: 32.0
Return Rating: 65.0

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 71.3
ELO Rating: 605.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.7
Clay: 11.2
Grass: 13.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 94.8

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Brisbane 100 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Paris 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (2-0) hard Paris 119 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Paris 118 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Joao Fonseca (0-2) hard Basel 85 min

Rinky Hijikata
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Adelaide 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1-2) hard Brisbane 133 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Brisbane 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Filip Misolic (2-0) hard Brisbane 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (0-2) hard Almaty 78 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
0
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The round of 16 match in Adelaide, Australia, pits Alejandro Davidovich Fokina against Rinky Hijikata on hard courts. With Davidovich Fokina ranked 14th and possessing a win probability of 60.33%, he is favored to advance. Hijikata, ranked 111th, has a win probability of 39.67%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina enters this match with a solid form index of 47.84 and an Elo rating of 2489.09. His cumulative fatigue stands at zero, indicating he is fresh heading into this match. On the other hand, Rinky Hijikata boasts a higher form index of 71.32 but carries a significant fatigue load of 79 minutes. In terms of surface strength, Davidovich Fokina has a score of 49.92, while Hijikata lags with a score of 21.71. Notably, there is a considerable difference in their mean serve index, with Hijikata at an impressive 97.84—over 5 points higher than Davidovich Fokina's 31.96. Conversely, Davidovich Fokina excels in the mean return index, leading Hijikata by over 5 points (Davidovich Fokina's 65.01 vs. Hijikata's 94.83). In their recent performances, Davidovich Fokina has faced challenges, losing his last two matches against Brandon Nakashima and Alexander Zverev, both in straight sets. His only win in the last three outings came against Arthur Cazaux. In contrast, Hijikata recently scored a solid victory over Tristan Schoolkate, following a loss to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard but a win against Adam Walton prior to that. This inconsistency may affect Hijikata's confidence as he faces a higher-ranked opponent.

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina has the advantage of ranking, experience, and a better return game, which may prove critical against a player like Hijikata, who relies heavily on his serve. A key factor to watch will be how Davidovich Fokina handles Hijikata's strong serve and whether he can capitalize on his superior return capabilities.