Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Alejandro Tabilo vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #41
60%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #82
40%
Expected Total Games: 23.8
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

Ranking Trends

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current Rank: #41 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #81 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #112 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #55 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #31 (2025-03-17)

Francisco Comesana

  • Current Rank: #82 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #67 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #60 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #64 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #67 (2025-03-17)

Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 45.8
ELO Rating: 819.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1695.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.2
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 90.5
Return Rating: 54.1

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 23.7
ELO Rating: 753.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.6
Clay: 7.3
Grass: 6.9
Serve Rating: 98.1
Return Rating: 91.7

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Indian Wells 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rafael Jodar (2-0) hard Indian Wells 58 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) clay Santiago 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-1) clay Santiago 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) clay Santiago 99 min

Francisco Comesana
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Indian Wells 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Pellegrino (1-2) clay Santiago 171 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Pedro Martinez (2-1) clay Santiago 171 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) clay Rio 156 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 125 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Miami (FL), a hard-court Masters 1000 Round of 128 clash pits Alejandro Tabilo against Francisco Comesana. The model favors Tabilo to advance (59.67% win probability) over Comesana (40.33%), with a predicted total of about 23.82 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tabilo enters this match as the higher-ranked player (No. 41) with a stronger Elo (819.37) and a markedly better form index (45.78) than Comesana (rank 82, Elo 753.18, form 23.68). Neither player carries tournament fatigue into Miami. Surface strength indices are low for both—Tabilo 5.19, Comesana 7.57—so recent surface-specific history will matter more than raw surface comfort. The difference in mean serve index is notable: Comesana (98.09) leads Tabilo (90.53) by over 7 points, while Comesana’s mean return index (91.69) dwarfs Tabilo’s (54.14) by a very wide margin. Those contrasts set up a tactical battle between Comesana’s combined serving and returning metrics and Tabilo’s higher overall standing and momentum. Recent results underline the contrast: Tabilo has split his last three, picking up a win at Indian Wells vs. Rafael Jodar and falling to Daniil Medvedev and Sebastian Baez (the latter on clay). Comesana’s recent swing includes a win over Pedro Martinez on clay but back-to-back defeats to Andrea Pellegrino and Sebastian Korda, both longer, grinding matches. The pattern suggests Tabilo arrives with steadier form while Comesana has shown flashes but less consistency in his latest outings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.8 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the meeting sits at 6.72 total, with expected double faults at about 4.11. On a medium-paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate; the surface balances power and return opportunities. Given Comesana’s higher mean serve index, the predicted aces could skew toward him, while Tabilo’s solid serve quality also contributes to the total. The expected double faults reflect a relatively conservative serving profile from both players.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s edge comes from superior ranking, Elo and recent form, which outweighs Comesana’s eye-catching serve and return metrics in this projection. The key factor to watch will be how Comesana’s heavy return numbers translate against Tabilo’s service games early in each set.

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