Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Alejandro Tabilo vs Kamil Majchrzak: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #35
65%
VS

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #77
35%
Expected Total Games: 38.1
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

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Player Metrics

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 37.2
ELO Rating: 1680.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1744.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.0
Clay: 20.1
Grass: 10.5
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 91.8

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 35.9
ELO Rating: 1606.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1627.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.4
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 19.5
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Alejandro Tabilo

Kamil Majchrzak

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alejandro Tabilo
vs
0
Kamil Majchrzak
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, the opening-round clay showdown between Alejandro Tabilo and Kamil Majchrzak pits two baseliners into the grand slam crucible. The model backs Alejandro Tabilo to advance, assigning him a 65.12% chance of victory versus 34.88% for Majchrzak, with a projected total of about 38.11 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tabilo comes in as the higher-ranked player (No. 35) with an Elo of 1680.16 and a form index of 37.22. His surface strength index on clay (20.10) is markedly better than Majchrzak’s (9.10), suggesting he adapts to the heavier rallies more comfortably. Tabilo’s serve and return profile are strong on paper (mean serve 97.33, mean return 91.78), and he arrives at Roland Garros with no cumulative fatigue logged in the tournament so far. Majchrzak, ranked 77 with an Elo of 1606.69 and a form index of 35.90, brings a solid baseline game but a lower clay-specific profile. His mean serve (94.48) and return (87.63) are respectable, though slightly behind Tabilo’s numbers. Recent match patterns show Tabilo with a mixed set of results on clay—an encouraging win over Pablo Carreño Busta in Rome sandwiched between defeats to Francisco Cerúndolo and Jiri Lehecka—while Majchrzak has endured long, physical losses in Hamburg and Marrakech with a single win in Marrakech earlier. Both players have logged lengthy clay matches in recent weeks, but neither carries additional fatigue into this encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.1 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Alejandro Tabilo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Alejandro Tabilo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Tabilo - Kamil Majchrzak) +0.9 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Alejandro Tabilo versus Kamil Majchrzak. Positive values indicate Alejandro Tabilo winning more games, negative values indicate Kamil Majchrzak winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Alejandro Tabilo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay clash is modest: the match’s predicted aces sit at 15.12, reflecting the slower surface that typically suppresses free points. Predicted aces skew toward both players serving efficiently rather than booming winners. The double faults prediction forecasts about 6.68 expected double faults; clay’s longer rallies and physical demands can elevate error count, which is reflected in this expected double faults figure. Tabilo’s slightly higher serve index may nudge a few more aces his way, but the surface limits that impact.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.1 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Alejandro Tabilo versus Kamil Majchrzak. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Alejandro Tabilo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Alejandro Tabilo versus Kamil Majchrzak. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Alejandro Tabilo versus Kamil Majchrzak. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alejandro Tabilo's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (28.2%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Alejandro Tabilo's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s superior clay surface index, higher ranking and stronger recent metrics give him the edge in this first-round duel. The key factor to watch will be Tabilo’s ability to convert return opportunities into breaks on the slower court, where extended exchanges typically decide outcomes.

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