Alejandro Tabilo vs Lautaro Midon: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Tabilo comes mainly from his recent record by level and overall strength, with surface fit and a smaller recent-form tilt also contributing. Tabilo’s higher standing is clear: ranked 31 with an Elo of 1622.8, compared with Midon at 230 and Elo 1511.7. That gap underpins the model’s overall-strength benefit (3.4 points) and the largest single driver, recent record by level (7.9 points). Surface fit (adding 3.9 points toward Tabilo) also favours him on clay: Tabilo’s surface strength index is 22.46 versus Midon’s 13.19. Recent form was a modest factor in Tabilo’s favour (+3.2 points) according to the model’s internal metrics, despite raw form_index values where Midon (37.80) edges Tabilo (32.01). Fatigue is a notable contrast — Tabilo arrives with 0 minutes on court in this event, while Midon carries 369 minutes — and age slightly favours Midon (the only factor listed toward him), but not enough to overturn the other advantages for Tabilo. Looking at recent match-level results, Tabilo’s last three matches (all on grass) were losses in straight sets, while Midon has won three straight matches at Bastad on clay, including a 141-minute last match. Those patterns underline Midon’s comfort at this venue and Tabilo’s limited recent match rhythm on clay specifically.