Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Quarterfinals

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #95
36%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #61
64%
Expected Total Games: 26.2
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

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Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current #95 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #75 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #62 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #71 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #80 2025-05-19

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #61 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #46 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #49 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #52 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 43.1
ELO Rating: 1574.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1619.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 576.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 11.1
Grass: 6.1
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 89.7

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 47.0
ELO Rating: 1626.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1674.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 232.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 19.7
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Kovacevic
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-1) clay Hamburg 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (1-2) clay Hamburg 144 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (1-2) clay Hamburg 144 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) clay Hamburg 146 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) clay Rome 127 min

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Aleksandar Kovacevic
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the Hamburg clay event in Germany, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is narrowly favored over Aleksandar Kovacevic in what promises to be a physically demanding match on slow clay. The model projects Carabelli to win with a 63.83% probability against Kovacevic’s 36.17%, and expects about 26.19 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Carabelli enters the match as the higher-ranked player (No. 61 vs No. 95) with a higher Elo (1626.94 to 1574.89) and a modestly better form index (46.95 vs 43.09). His surface strength index on clay (19.67) also edges Kovacevic’s (11.05), and he has logged substantially less court time in the tournament (232 minutes versus Kovacevic’s 576), a factor that favors freshness late in rallies. Kovacevic’s mean serve and return indices are strong (serve 97.02, return 89.65) and similar to Carabelli’s numbers, so expect baseline battles and service holds to be contested rather than overwhelmingly one-sided. Recent form favors Carabelli: he has back-to-back wins in Hamburg, most recently a straight-sets victory over Frances Tiafoe and a three-set win over Kamil Majchrzak, showing rhythm and shorter match durations. Kovacevic has a mixed recent sequence: a notable three-set win over Felix Auger-Aliassime but two earlier three-set losses in the same event, and his cumulative match minutes suggest tougher, longer outings to get through to the quarters. Those durability differences are significant on slow clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.2 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Aleksandar Kovacevic - Camilo Ugo Carabelli) -0.9 Most likely spread: -1 (Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction here is modest — the predicted aces total is 12.59 for the match — reflecting clay’s slower bounce and reduced outright free points. The predicted aces figure and the expected double faults (4.25) fit clay patterns: fewer aces but a risk of double faults rising with fatigue. Neither player posts a dramatically higher serve rating, so the predicted aces should come from service placement rather than sheer power; the expected double faults may increase if long rallies and physical wear set in.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.6 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.9% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Aleksandar Kovacevic's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Carabelli’s higher ranking, Elo edge and fresher legs are the primary reasons he’s favored. Watch Kovacevic’s endurance and serve consistency — if his long minutes on court translate into late-match lapses, double faults and short serve returns will determine the outcome.

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