Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Khachanov comes mainly from recent record by level, plus his superior serve and return profile and overall strength. Khachanov carries a higher Elo at 1651.64 versus Kovacevic’s 1480.45, and a superior rank, 39 compared with 95. His form index is also stronger, 32.68 to 22.83, and his surface strength index on hard courts is modestly better, 20.49 to 13.39. Both players show zero cumulative fatigue from this event, so freshness is not a factor. The serve indices are very similar, 97.17 for Kovacevic and 96.26 for Khachanov, so neither gains a clear serve advantage by that metric. Return indices are close as well, 87.28 for Khachanov and 85.67 for Kovacevic. Recent form has been shaky for both players, but the model weights the level of recent opponents in Khachanov’s favor. Kovacevic has three straight losses: a long hard court match in Toronto (lost in three), a straight sets loss to Cameron Norrie in Los Cabos, and a four set defeat at Wimbledon. Khachanov also comes in without recent wins in the listed three matches, including a five set loss at Wimbledon and straight set defeats in North American hard court events. The combination of Khachanov’s higher Elo and slightly better form index accounts for the bulk of the projected probability gap.