Luca Van Assche vs Aleksandar Kovacevic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Kovacevic comes mainly from recent record by level, which shifted 9.2 percentage points toward him. That factor reflects Kovacevic’s timely wins against higher level opposition this season and his recent match win here in Winston Salem. Smaller contributors that also tip the scales are his recent form and serve and return metrics, which together add a few more percentage points to his probability. Age contributed 2.9 points in favor of Van Assche, offering a minor counterweight. Looking at the raw profiles, Van Assche arrives with the higher ranking, 54 to 96, the stronger form index at 47.21 versus 30.29, and the higher Elo, 1607 to 1532. He also shows a markedly better return index, 90.65 versus Kovacevic’s 83.93, which is a notable gap on this surface. Kovacevic carries 78 minutes of fatigue from earlier in the event compared with Van Assche’s zero minutes. Surface strength indices are similar and both players project as capable on hard courts. Serve ratings are close, with mean serve indices of 95.06 for Van Assche and 96.41 for Kovacevic, so no large serve advantage is implied. Form over the last three matches is mixed. Van Assche won two matches then lost in Cincinnati to Yannick Hanfmann. Kovacevic beat Khachanov and Balshaw but lost to Nakashima in between. Those results feed the model’s assessment that Kovacevic’s recent wins at comparable levels give him a slight edge.