Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
52%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
48%
Expected Total Games: 39.4
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #10 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #16 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #30 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #75 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #37 (2025-01-13)

Alex de Minaur

  • Current Rank: #6 (2026-01-12)
  • 3 Months Ago: #7 (2025-10-20)
  • 6 Months Ago: #13 (2025-07-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #7 (2025-04-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #8 (2025-01-13)

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 99.0
ELO Rating: 2972.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1662.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 23.3
Serve Rating: 78.2
Return Rating: 37.6

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 97.5
ELO Rating: 4080.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1857.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 95.3
Clay: 95.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jenson Brooksby (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) hard Hong Kong 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Hong Kong 101 min

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Paris 142 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Paris 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Australian Open 2026, Alexander Bublik faces off against Alex de Minaur on hard courts in Australia. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Bublik slightly favored to win, holding a 51.75% probability of victory compared to de Minaur's 48.25%. Analysts anticipate a total of approximately 39.37 games to be played during this intense matchup.

Match Analysis

Alexander Bublik, ranked 10th, has a form index of 99.01 and an Elo rating of 2972.83, showcasing his current high-performance level. His surface strength index is at 17.65, indicating solid adaptability on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 78.23 suggests he possesses a powerful serve. In contrast, Alex de Minaur, ranked 6th, boasts a higher Elo rating of 4080.00 and an impressive surface strength index of 95.27, demonstrating his proficiency on hard courts. Notably, de Minaur's mean serve index of 95.84 considerably exceeds Bublik's, highlighting a significant difference of over 17 points in serve capabilities. Additionally, de Minaur's return index of 91.26 vastly surpasses Bublik's 37.60, indicating that he may excel in returning Bublik's serves. Both players come into this match after strong performances in their previous matches. Bublik has won all three of his latest matches at the Australian Open without dropping a set, showcasing his dominant form. De Minaur has also been impressive, securing victories in his last three matches, although he did drop a set against Hamad Medjedovic, which may impact his momentum.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.4 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is projected to feature around 8.89 aces and 6.37 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which supports balanced serving and returning, the expected aces prediction aligns with the players' serving capabilities. While Bublik's serve may not be as strong as de Minaur's, his serve index is still noteworthy, and he could capitalize on any opportunities to increase his ace count. The expected double faults prediction suggests that both players might struggle with consistency under pressure, which could play a crucial role in the match dynamics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik's slight edge in prediction stems from his recent form and confidence, having not lost a set in this tournament so far. However, de Minaur's superior serve and return indices could be a decisive factor, making his ability to capitalize on Bublik's serve crucial to his success. Observers should closely watch how both players handle service games, as this could significantly sway the match outcome.

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