Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Frances Tiafoe

Rank: #31
37%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
63%
Expected Total Games: 38.6
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Player Metrics

Frances Tiafoe

Form Index: 82.8
ELO Rating: 1487.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1760.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 10.1
Grass: 11.4
Serve Rating: 64.6
Return Rating: 62.7

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 88.7
ELO Rating: 4080.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1855.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 95.3
Clay: 95.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Frances Tiafoe

  • Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jason Kubler (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Brisbane 60 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Brisbane 60 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (1-2) hard Shanghai 170 min

Alex de Minaur

  • Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Mackenzie McDonald (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (1-2) hard Paris 142 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Karen Khachanov (2-0) hard Paris 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Gabriel Diallo (2-1) hard Paris 157 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Frances Tiafoe
vs
1
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Australian Open 2026, Frances Tiafoe faces off against Alex de Minaur on the hard courts of Australia. With a predicted probability of win at 37.11% for Tiafoe and 62.89% for de Minaur, the match is expected to be competitive, with a total of approximately 38.65 games anticipated.

Match Analysis

Frances Tiafoe is currently ranked 31st, with a form index of 82.80 and an Elo rating of 1487.30. His surface strength index stands at 8.00, indicating a moderate proficiency on hard courts, while his mean serve index of 64.64 shows he has decent serving capabilities. However, his mean return index of 62.67 suggests that he may struggle to break his opponent’s serve effectively. In contrast, Alex de Minaur, ranked 6th, boasts a form index of 88.73 and an impressive Elo rating of 4080.00. His surface strength index is notably high at 95.27, and he possesses a mean serve index of 95.90, which is 31.26 points higher than Tiafoe's, highlighting a significant advantage. Additionally, his mean return index of 91.26 gives him further leverage in this matchup. Both players have shown solid form in their recent performances. Tiafoe has won his last two matches at the Australian Open, defeating Francisco Comesana and Jason Kubler, whereas he lost to Daniil Medvedev in Brisbane. Meanwhile, de Minaur has also been victorious in his last two encounters at the Australian Open, overcoming Hamad Medjedovic and Mackenzie McDonald, though he faced a setback against Alexander Bublik in Paris prior to this tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.6 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to see around 16.88 aces and 5.74 double faults. Given the hard court surface, which generally produces a balanced number of aces, the higher serve index of de Minaur indicates he may be responsible for a significant portion of the predicted aces. Tiafoe's serve is competent but may not produce as many aces, potentially leading to a higher double faults prediction for him.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.9 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Alex de Minaur's superior rank, form, serve, and return capabilities provide him with a distinct edge in this matchup. A key factor to observe will be how well Tiafoe can challenge De Minaur’s serve, as this will heavily influence the match's outcome.

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