Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 16

Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov Prediction

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #9
64%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #27
36%
Expected Total Games: 25.3
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Why the Model Favors Alex de Minaur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +8.5 Alex de Minaur
Surface fit +2.9 Alex de Minaur
Age +1.7 Alex de Minaur
Fatigue & recent workload +1.7 Alex de Minaur
Serve & return game +1.5 Karen Khachanov

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Alex de Minaur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #9 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #6 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #6 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #7 2025-09-29

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #27 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #22 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #14 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #17 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 64.0
ELO Rating: 1898.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1902.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.0
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 36.3
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 90.8

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 70.9
ELO Rating: 1884.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1765.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 286.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.3
Clay: 26.2
Grass: 30.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Karen Khachanov
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

De Minaur is favoured to win this Round of 16 match in Shanghai, with a 64% chance against Khachanov’s 36%. The forecast points to a competitive contest lasting about 25.3 games.

Match Analysis

De Minaur arrives on a three-match winning run, while Khachanov has won two of his last three. The workload gap is substantial: de Minaur has spent 94 minutes on court in Shanghai, compared with 286 for Khachanov, including a 209-minute win over Arthur Fery. De Minaur’s stronger returning and slightly better hard-court fit give him a sounder base in this matchup. Khachanov has a small serving advantage, though, and can keep the pressure on if he earns enough points behind his first serve. De Minaur’s ability to make Khachanov work through service games is likely to be important.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.3 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Karen Khachanov) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Khachanov is projected for 6.6 aces and de Minaur for 5.8, reflecting Khachanov’s slight edge on serve. De Minaur is forecast to hit 2.7 double faults and Khachanov 2.3, for just under five combined.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.2 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Alex de Minaur 5.8 + Karen Khachanov 6.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Alex de Minaur 2.7 + Karen Khachanov 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alex de Minaur

Expected 5.8 aces

Karen Khachanov

Expected 6.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alex de Minaur

Expected 2.7 double faults

Karen Khachanov

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex de Minaur's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s serve is the clearest way to disrupt the forecast. If it brings him enough short points to blunt de Minaur’s return pressure, he could offset both the workload disadvantage and de Minaur’s steadier overall profile.

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