Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur Prediction

Tomas Machac

Rank: #71
26%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #10
74%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Why the Model Favors Alex de Minaur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.2 Alex de Minaur
Overall strength +7.0 Alex de Minaur
Surface fit +3.7 Alex de Minaur
Overall record & opposition quality +3.3 Alex de Minaur
Serve & return game +1.0 Tomas Machac

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Alex de Minaur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current #71 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #54 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #41 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #24 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #34 2025-10-27

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #10 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #8 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #6 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #6 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 38.2
ELO Rating: 1643.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1725.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 89.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.4
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 88.1

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 46.0
ELO Rating: 1914.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1902.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 43.0
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 36.3
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Corentin Moutet (2-0) hard Vienna 89 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (1-2) hard Almaty 151 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zangar Nurlanuly (2-0) hard Almaty 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Shanghai 83 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) hard Shanghai 130 min

Alex de Minaur
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
1
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alex de Minaur is a clear favourite, with the forecast giving him 74% to Tomas Machac’s 26%. It projects 24.1 games in this Vienna Round of 32 match, pointing to a contest that could extend beyond a routine straight-sets win.

Match Analysis

The main separation is de Minaur’s stronger overall level and hard-court record. Ranked 10th to Machac’s 71st, he also arrives with a recent win over Karen Khachanov, while Machac lost to the same opponent in Almaty. De Minaur’s defeat to Alexander Zverev in Shanghai is a reminder that his recent form is not unbroken, but his wins over Khachanov and Rei Sakamoto support the stronger recent profile. Machac has already beaten Corentin Moutet in Vienna, but that is a narrower basis for confidence than de Minaur’s results against tougher opposition. His serve is the one area where the matchup tilts slightly his way, and it could help him avoid giving de Minaur too many comfortable return games. De Minaur’s return advantage and broader hard-court strength should matter more over a longer match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Machac - Alex de Minaur) -3.7 Most likely spread: -4 (Alex de Minaur wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Machac is projected to hit 5.0 aces and 2.6 double faults, with de Minaur at 5.6 aces and 2.9 double faults. Their serve numbers point to similar output, while Machac’s stronger serve gives him a plausible way to keep the score tight on this medium-paced hard court.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 8 aces Per player: Tomas Machac 5.0 + Alex de Minaur 5.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Tomas Machac 2.6 + Alex de Minaur 2.9

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tomas Machac

Expected 5.0 aces

Alex de Minaur

Expected 5.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tomas Machac

Expected 2.6 double faults

Alex de Minaur

Expected 2.9 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

31.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tomas Machac's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (45.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s best chance is to make his serve count and prevent de Minaur from turning his return strength into repeated pressure. If de Minaur consistently neutralizes that first shot, the forecast gap is likely to show.

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