Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Alex Michelsen vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Prediction

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #35
54%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #54
46%
Expected Total Games: 26.8
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

Why the Model Favors Alex Michelsen

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Head-to-head +3.7 Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Recent form +2.1 Alex Michelsen
Serve & return game +2.0 Alex Michelsen
Overall strength +1.8 Alex Michelsen
Age +1.4 Alex Michelsen

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Alex Michelsen. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alex Michelsen

  • Current #35 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #42 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #41 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #38 2025-11-10

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current #54 2026-11-02
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-08-10
  • 6 mo ago #72 2026-05-04
  • 9 mo ago #80 2026-02-09
  • 12 mo ago #84 2025-11-10

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 47.6
ELO Rating: 1853.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1813.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 67.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 40.1
Clay: 18.5
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 89.2

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 51.1
ELO Rating: 1688.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1699.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 97.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.8
Clay: 30.4
Grass: 8.6
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex Michelsen
vs
1
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Alex Michelsen is a slight favorite, taking 54% of the forecast to Juan Manuel Cerundolo’s 46%, with 26.8 games expected. The prediction leans toward Michelsen, but gives him only a narrow advantage.

Match Analysis

The head-to-head component favors Cerundolo, but Michelsen has the stronger overall profile. He is ranked 35th to Cerundolo’s 54th and has the better serve-and-return combination, giving him an edge without making him a clear favorite. Both arrive off straight-set wins in Stockholm, Michelsen against Yannick Hanfmann and Cerundolo against Elias Ymer. Cerundolo has spent 30 more minutes on court in the tournament, a small extra load that could matter if this match is as long as the game projection suggests.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.8 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex Michelsen - Juan Manuel Cerundolo) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Their serve profiles are close, and the forecast has Michelsen at 6.5 aces and Cerundolo at 7.1. It projects 2.7 double faults for Michelsen and 3.0 for Cerundolo, also a narrow difference.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.3 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Alex Michelsen 6.5 + Juan Manuel Cerundolo 7.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Alex Michelsen 2.7 + Juan Manuel Cerundolo 3.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alex Michelsen

Expected 6.5 aces

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Expected 7.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alex Michelsen

Expected 2.7 double faults

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Expected 3.0 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex Michelsen's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (32.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s head-to-head advantage is the clearest factor that could turn this close forecast his way.

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