Mallorca Spain Grass Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Alex Michelsen vs Roberto Bautista Agut Prediction

Alex Michelsen

Rank: #33
53%
VS

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #51
47%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alex Michelsen

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Ranking Trends

Alex Michelsen

  • Current #33 2025-06-16
  • 3 mo ago #33 2025-03-17
  • 6 mo ago #41 2024-12-23
  • 9 mo ago #49 2024-09-23
  • 12 mo ago #62 2024-06-24

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current #51 2025-06-16
  • 3 mo ago #50 2025-03-17
  • 6 mo ago #51 2024-12-23
  • 9 mo ago #61 2024-09-23
  • 12 mo ago #122 2024-06-24

Player Metrics

Alex Michelsen

Form Index: 51.0
ELO Rating: 1272.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1602.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 78.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.8
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 9.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 88.8

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 56.6
ELO Rating: 1312.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1630.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 221.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 9.7
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Alex Michelsen
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Holt (2-0) grass Mallorca 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) grass Halle 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (2-0) grass Halle 103 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-1) grass Halle 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Justin Engel (0-2) grass Stuttgart 77 min

Roberto Bautista Agut
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex Michelsen
vs
0
Roberto Bautista Agut
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The quarterfinal match at the Mallorca tournament is set to feature Alex Michelsen against Roberto Bautista Agut on grass. With both players vying for a place in the semifinals, Michelsen is predicted to edge out Bautista Agut with a win probability of 53.32% compared to 46.68%. The anticipated total number of games played in this match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 33rd, Alex Michelsen displays a solid form index of 51.03 and an Elo rating of 1272.38. He has a notable cumulative fatigue of 78 minutes from this tournament, which may influence his performance. His surface strength index sits at 9.90, while his mean serve index is slightly higher than Bautista Agut's, at 97.47 compared to 95.53. Additionally, Michelsen's mean return index of 88.84 surpasses Bautista Agut's return index by more than 1 point, indicating a slight edge in returning capabilities. Roberto Bautista Agut, ranked 51st, has a better Elo rating of 1312.70, but his form index is lower at 56.57. Notably, he has accumulated a considerable fatigue level of 221 minutes, which could impact his endurance in this match. In their recent performances, Michelsen has shown resilience, winning against Brandon Holt and Stefanos Tsitsipas in his last three matches. In contrast, Bautista Agut has secured victories against Bernard Tomic and Tomas Martin Etcheverry but lost to Carlos Alcaraz, suggesting a mixed form heading into this quarterfinal.

Final Prediction

Alex Michelsen's slightly superior serving and returning indices, combined with his lower fatigue levels, give him a competitive advantage over Roberto Bautista Agut. A key factor to observe in this match will be Michelsen's ability to capitalize on his serving strength, which could be pivotal in determining the match's outcome.

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