Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #11
74%
VS

Jenson Brooksby

Rank: #49
26%
Expected Total Games: 39.6
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 67.2
ELO Rating: 2972.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1654.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.6
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 23.3
Serve Rating: 74.6
Return Rating: 37.7

Jenson Brooksby

Form Index: 33.9
ELO Rating: 1005.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1547.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.0
Clay: 24.9
Grass: 24.7
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 96.8

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik

  • Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) hard Hong Kong 98 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Hong Kong 101 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Hong Kong 85 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Hong Kong 70 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Vitaliy Sachko (1-2) hard Metz 128 min

Jenson Brooksby

  • Last Match: vs Sebastian Baez (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs James Watt (2-0) hard Auckland 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) hard Paris 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (1-2) hard Basel 167 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alexandre Muller (2-0) hard Basel 67 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Jenson Brooksby
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 match at the 2026 Australian Open, Alexander Bublik faces off against Jenson Brooksby on hard courts. With Bublik holding a probability of winning at 74.13% compared to Brooksby's 25.87%, the expected total number of games in the match is approximately 39.58.

Match Analysis

Alexander Bublik, currently ranked 11th, showcases a robust form index of 67.15 and an impressive Elo rating of 2972.83. He has demonstrated remarkable stamina with zero cumulative fatigue from the current tournament and a strong surface strength index of 17.65. His mean serve index is notably high at 74.63, significantly outpacing Brooksby’s mean serve index of 97.41 by more than 5 points. Conversely, Brooksby, ranked 49th, has a lower form index of 33.86, indicating recent struggles, and his Elo rating of 1005.86 reflects a marked gap in performance. Both players have shown minimal fatigue, but the disparity in their serve capabilities could play a crucial role. Examining recent performances, Bublik has won all three of his last matches, with dominant scores and durations, showcasing his current form and confidence on hard surfaces. In contrast, Brooksby has faced inconsistency, losing two of his last three matches, including a straight-sets defeat in his most recent outing. This trend may impact Brooksby’s mental state as he approaches this challenging encounter against a higher-ranked opponent.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.6 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 13.83 aces and 5.53 double faults. Given the hard court surface facilitates a balanced serving environment, both players will have opportunities to leverage their serve. Bublik's higher serve index suggests he might dominate the ace count, potentially leading to a higher number of aces prediction for him. Conversely, Brooksby’s strong return index may help him capitalize on Bublik's serve, but his serve's inconsistency could contribute to a higher double faults prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.8 Most likely: 13 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Bublik is favored to win due to his superior ranking, recent form, and serve capabilities, which give him a clear advantage in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Brooksby can manage Bublik’s powerful serve and whether he can convert any break points into a competitive edge.

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