Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Alexander Bublik vs Marton Fucsovics: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #10
68%
VS

Marton Fucsovics

Rank: #55
32%
Expected Total Games: 37.2
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 85.3
ELO Rating: 2972.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1656.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.6
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 23.3
Serve Rating: 79.1
Return Rating: 37.9

Marton Fucsovics

Form Index: 59.1
ELO Rating: 964.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.7
Clay: 21.9
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 95.3

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik

  • Last Match: vs Jenson Brooksby (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (2-0) hard Hong Kong 98 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) hard Hong Kong 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Hong Kong 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Hong Kong 70 min

Marton Fucsovics

  • Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (0-2) hard Adelaide 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Adelaide 95 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) hard Brisbane 69 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Stockholm 108 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Marton Fucsovics
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Alexander Bublik and Marton Fucsovics at the 2026 Australian Open marks an exciting clash in the Round of 64 on hard courts. With Bublik ranked 10th and showcasing strong recent form, he is favored to win with a 68.10% probability, while Fucsovics, ranked 55th, carries a 31.90% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 37.16.

Match Analysis

Bublik's ranking of 10 and a form index of 85.33 indicate he is currently performing at a high level, evidenced by his strong Elo rating of 2972.83. He has displayed resilience with a fatigue level of 174 minutes, which suggests he is managing his stamina well. His surface strength index of 17.65 denotes a solid adaptation to hard courts, complemented by a mean serve index of 79.13. In contrast, Fucsovics, ranked 55, holds a lower form index of 59.09 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 964.44. His fatigue level is similar at 174 minutes, but he excels in serve with a mean serve index of 96.87 and a higher surface strength index of 29.66. However, the difference in their mean serve indices (Bublik 79.13 vs. Fucsovics 96.87) indicates that Fucsovics has the edge in server effectiveness, despite Bublik's overall better ranking and form. In their recent performances, Bublik has won all his last three matches, including a dominant victory over Jenson Brooksby at the Australian Open, not losing a single set. Fucsovics, while also successful in his last match against Camilo Ugo Carabelli, faced a setback in his previous match in Adelaide, where he lost to Alexander Shevchenko. The inconsistency in Fucsovics's recent form compared to Bublik's winning streak could be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.2 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is anticipated to produce around 13.22 aces, with both players capable of serving effectively on hard courts. Given Fucsovics's higher mean serve index, he may contribute a significant portion of these expected aces. The projected double faults count of 4.4 suggests that both players will likely face some service challenges, but their strong service abilities may mitigate this risk.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Bublik's superior recent form and consistency provide him with a notable advantage heading into this match against Fucsovics. Key factors to watch will be Bublik’s ability to handle Fucsovics's powerful serve and the effectiveness of his return game, which could ultimately influence the match's outcome.

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