Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Bublik comes mainly from his overall strength and better surface fit—these two factors push the prediction toward him more than any others. Bublik enters with a higher Elo (1758.05 versus Halys’s 1646.10) and a top-15 ranking, and his surface strength index (30.15) is notably higher than Halys’s 19.60, which explains the surface-fit boost on clay. Recent form also nudges slightly toward Bublik, while Halys picks up ground from serve & return characteristics and recent results at similar levels. Looking at the raw numbers, Bublik’s form index sits at 41.40 against Halys’s 43.60; both have been active, but fatigue differs markedly—Bublik reports 0 minutes on court in this event while Halys has accumulated 125 minutes, which can matter on a physically demanding clay court. Their mean serve indices are very close (Bublik 97.22, Halys 96.36), so the serving match-up is balanced; however Bublik’s mean return index (92.52) is about 9.9 points higher than Halys’s (82.65), a meaningful gap that favors Bublik’s ability to create break opportunities. In their last three matches Bublik showed two wins followed by a loss at Wimbledon (mixed but strong showings), while Halys has a recent win here in Gstaad plus a win and a loss on grass.