Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Machac Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #22
48%
VS

Tomas Machac

Rank: #75
52%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

Why the Model Favors Tomas Machac

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +2.8 Tomas Machac
Head-to-head +1.9 Tomas Machac
Overall strength +1.7 Alexander Bublik
Overall record & opposition quality +1.5 Alexander Bublik
Age +1.4 Tomas Machac

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Tomas Machac. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #22 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #11 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #11 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #11 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #17 2025-09-29

Tomas Machac

  • Current #75 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #49 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #53 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #35 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #23 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1737.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1799.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.8
Clay: 29.3
Grass: 36.1
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 87.9

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 31.7
ELO Rating: 1649.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1735.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 130.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.1
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) hard Beijing 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs J.J. Wolf (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-2) clay Kitzbuhel 93 min

Tomas Machac
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) hard Shanghai 130 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Molcan (0-2) hard Beijing 63 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (0-2) hard Beijing 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-1) hard Beijing 184 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Toby Samuel (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Tomas Machac
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tomas Machac is a narrow favourite, taking 52% of the win probability to Alexander Bublik’s 48%. The forecast points to a fairly long match, with 24.1 games expected.

Match Analysis

Machac’s recent record by level is the clearest factor in his favour. He comes off a Shanghai win over Zhizhen Zhang, while Bublik’s latest match ended in a loss to Jakub Mensik. Bublik did beat Adrian Mannarino at the US Open, so the recent picture is not one-sided. Their head-to-head history also gives Machac a small lift, but Bublik has the stronger overall profile. Ranked 22nd to Machac’s 75th, he has the advantage in overall strength and record against the opposition he has faced. That keeps the forecast close despite Machac’s recent results.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac) +0.8 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bublik is projected to hit 10.7 aces and Machac 5.7, reflecting Bublik’s stronger serve. Bublik is also expected to make 3.8 double faults to Machac’s 2.6, so his higher ace output comes with more risk on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.6 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Alexander Bublik 10.7 + Tomas Machac 5.7
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Alexander Bublik 3.8 + Tomas Machac 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 10.7 aces

Tomas Machac

Expected 5.7 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 3.8 double faults

Tomas Machac

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

51.1% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Bublik's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (30.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s serve is the specific threat that could turn this narrow forecast around. If he consistently makes Machac play points on return, his ace advantage could prove decisive.

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