Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alexander Zverev vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #4
62%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #35
38%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #4 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #3 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #3 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #3 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #2 2025-02-24

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #35 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #35 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #40 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #73 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #65 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 86.3
ELO Rating: 5105.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2260.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.7
Clay: 36.6
Grass: 39.6
Serve Rating: 74.6
Return Rating: 47.6

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 46.7
ELO Rating: 1382.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1580.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.1
Clay: 10.9
Grass: 12.3
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Corentin Moutet
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alexander Zverev
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 meeting in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard courts at a 500-level tournament. Alexander Zverev is the model favorite — predicted to win with a 62.06% probability while Corentin Moutet is given a 37.94% chance; the model expects about 22.52 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Zverev enters ranked 4 with a high form index (86.29) and a very strong Elo (5105.0); his cumulative fatigue is zero and his surface strength index on hard is 36.73. Moutet is ranked 35, has a lower form index (46.73) and an Elo of 1382.32, with no fatigue listed and a surface strength index of 11.13. The serving and returning profiles differ markedly: Moutet’s mean serve index (96.80) beats Zverev’s (74.61) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (90.57) is also far higher than Zverev’s (47.62). Those gaps suggest contrast in playing style and point construction despite Zverev’s higher overall ratings. Recent form backs Zverev’s edge — he reached late rounds at the Australian Open, beating Learner Tien and Francisco Cerundolo before a five-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz. Moutet’s recent three matches include a win over Michael Zheng and losses to Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul; results indicate flashes of quality but less consistent outcomes compared with Zverev’s path.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Zverev - Corentin Moutet) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction: the model projects 24.56 total aces in the match; predicted aces are likely elevated because Moutet posts a substantially higher serve index. Double faults prediction: the expected double faults tally is 6.81 for the match. Hard courts are medium-paced with a consistent bounce, so they usually produce a moderate ace count; Moutet’s superior serve index should push the ace numbers up relative to a neutral matchup.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 24.6 Most likely: 26 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Zverev’s ranking, form and overwhelming Elo advantage give him the edge in this matchup despite Moutet’s standout serve and return indices. The key factor to watch will be how Zverev copes with Moutet’s big-serving profile and elite return index in short, pivotal service games.

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