Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Alexander Zverev vs Quentin Halys Prediction

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #2
81%
VS

Quentin Halys

Rank: #48
19%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Why the Model Favors Alexander Zverev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +10.6 Alexander Zverev
Surface fit +7.5 Alexander Zverev
Recent record by level +7.3 Alexander Zverev
Serve & return game +4.9 Alexander Zverev
Head-to-head +1.8 Alexander Zverev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 81% for Alexander Zverev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Alexander Zverev

  • Current #2 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #3 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #3 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #3 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #3 2025-09-29

Quentin Halys

  • Current #48 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #95 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #89 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #91 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #75 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 64.6
ELO Rating: 2148.1
Glicko2 Rating: 2073.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 61.0
Clay: 57.1
Grass: 48.7
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 89.9

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 55.6
ELO Rating: 1789.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1757.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 220.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.6
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 83.5

Recent Matches

Alexander Zverev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Yibing Wu (2-0) hard Shanghai 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (1-2) hard Beijing 154 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Beijing 55 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Beijing 99 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ben Shelton (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Quentin Halys
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

3
Alexander Zverev
vs
0
Quentin Halys
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Zverev is a strong favourite, with an 81% win probability against Halys’s 19%. In this Round of 32 match in Shanghai, the expected total is 25.1 games.

Match Analysis

Zverev’s No. 2 ranking reflects a substantial overall advantage over the No. 48 Halys. He is also the stronger returner and the better fit for hard courts, giving him more ways to put pressure on Halys than the other way around. Halys has won twice in Shanghai, but his latest victory over Alexander Blockx took three sets. He has spent 220 minutes on court in the tournament, compared with Zverev’s 95, while Zverev arrives after a straight-sets win over Yibing Wu.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Zverev - Quentin Halys) +4.5 Most likely spread: +5 (Alexander Zverev wins 5 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Halys is projected to hit 11.1 aces, just ahead of Zverev at 10.4, with their serve strengths closely matched. The estimates are 3.3 double faults for Halys and 2.3 for Zverev, pointing to a little more fault risk from Halys.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.2 Most likely: 19 aces Per player: Alexander Zverev 10.4 + Quentin Halys 11.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Alexander Zverev 2.3 + Quentin Halys 3.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Zverev

Expected 10.4 aces

Quentin Halys

Expected 11.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Zverev

Expected 2.3 double faults

Quentin Halys

Expected 3.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

46.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Zverev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (56.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Halys’s serve gives him his best chance to narrow the gap. If he keeps producing aces, he can make Zverev’s return advantage less decisive.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel