Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 32

Vilius Gaubas vs Alexander Zverev Prediction

Vilius Gaubas

Rank: #154
23%
VS

Alexander Zverev

Rank: #2
77%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Zverev

Player Metrics

Vilius Gaubas

Form Index: 56.5
ELO Rating: 449.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1526.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 424.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 2.7
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 90.8

Alexander Zverev

Form Index: 57.4
ELO Rating: 6861.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1883.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 66.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 56.8
Clay: 60.0
Grass: 66.4
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 88.0

Recent Matches

Vilius Gaubas

  • Last Match: vs Denis Shapovalov (2-0) clay Rome 107 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Damir Dzumhur (2-1) clay Rome 147 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) clay Rome 99 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Eliot Spizzirri (2-0) clay Rome 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Maks Kasnikowski (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min

Alexander Zverev

  • Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) clay Rome 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-1) clay Madrid 164 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Roberto Bautista Agut (2-0) clay Madrid 70 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ben Shelton (2-0) clay Munich 71 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Vilius Gaubas
vs
0
Alexander Zverev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Vilius Gaubas faces a formidable opponent in Alexander Zverev. Given the players' current form and match history, Zverev is favored to win, with a probability of 77.02%, compared to Gaubas's 22.98%. The predicted total number of games played in this match is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Vilius Gaubas, currently ranked 154, has a form index of 56.55 and an Elo rating of 449.30, which reflects a significant gap when compared to Alexander Zverev's impressive rank of 2 and Elo rating of 6861.88. Gaubas has accumulated a fatigue level of 424 minutes in the tournament, which could impact his performance against Zverev, who has only 66 minutes of cumulative fatigue. Additionally, the surface strength index highlights a stark contrast; Gaubas has a score of 3.93 while Zverev boasts a strong 60.01, indicating Zverev's superior adaptability on clay. The mean serve index also shows Zverev ahead with 96.98 compared to Gaubas's 96.27, although the difference is just below the 5-point threshold. Examining recent performances, Gaubas has shown resilience, winning all three of his previous matches in this tournament, including a notable victory over Denis Shapovalov. His recent form demonstrates capability, but the intensity of Zverev’s competition and his own loss in the Madrid tournament may serve as a wake-up call. Zverev, despite a recent loss to Francisco Cerundolo, bounced back decisively against Camilo Ugo Carabelli, showcasing his ability to recover quickly and perform effectively on clay.

Final Prediction

Alexander Zverev's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and significantly better surface strength index provide him with a distinct advantage in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how Gaubas manages his fatigue against Zverev's fresh momentum and whether Zverev’s powerful serve can dominate the match and put pressure on Gaubas's return game.