Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Alexei Popyrin vs Alexandre Muller: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #50
45%
VS

Alexandre Muller

Rank: #52
55%
Expected Total Games: 39.6
Predicted Winner: Alexandre Muller

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 0.0
ELO Rating: 951.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1675.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 9.4
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 75.4
Return Rating: 43.5

Alexandre Muller

Form Index: 19.2
ELO Rating: 952.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.6
Clay: 28.9
Grass: 19.2
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 95.6

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin

  • Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (0-2) hard Adelaide 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (1-2) hard Brisbane 114 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Paris 74 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Matteo Berrettini (0-2) hard Vienna 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (1-2) hard Stockholm 143 min

Alexandre Muller

  • Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (0-2) hard Auckland 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (0-2) hard Hong Kong 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Hong Kong 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (1-2) hard Paris 184 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Paris 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Alexandre Muller
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open, taking place on hard courts in Australia, Alexei Popyrin faces off against Alexandre Muller. The predicted winner of this matchup is Alexandre Muller, with a win probability of 55.01%, while Alexei Popyrin has a 44.99% chance of victory. The match is expected to be competitive, with an estimated total of 39.61 games likely to be played.

Match Analysis

Both players are closely ranked, with Popyrin at 50 and Muller at 52. Popyrin's form index is notably low at 0.0, suggesting he has struggled recently, while Muller has a form index of 19.21, indicating a slightly better performance level. The Elo ratings are also quite close, with Popyrin at 951.42 and Muller at 952.33, reflecting their similar skill levels. Popyrin shows a surface strength index of 6.57, while Muller boasts a significantly higher index of 22.60, indicating a stronger adaptation to hard courts. Additionally, there is a notable difference in their mean serve index, with Muller at 98.00, compared to Popyrin's 75.42, suggesting Muller may have a more effective serve. Recent performances illustrate the struggles both players have faced. Popyrin has lost all three of his last matches, including a straight-set defeat to Reilly Opelka. In contrast, Muller has shown slightly better results, even though he also suffered a couple of losses against Marcos Giron. His one victory in the last three matches, against Miomir Kecmanovic, showcases his potential to perform at a higher level when needed.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.6 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces for this match is projected to be around 12.95, which aligns with the hard court surface known for balancing serve power and return capabilities. Both players could contribute to this ace count, but Muller's superior serve index may lead to a higher individual total. The match is also predicted to see about 4.17 double faults, a figure that reflects the pressure and intensity of a Grand Slam setting, where nerves can often lead to mistakes.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.9 Most likely: 12 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Alexandre Muller holds the edge in this matchup due to his stronger serve and better adaptation to the hard court surface, alongside a more favorable recent form. A key factor to watch will be Muller's ability to leverage his serve effectively, potentially dictating the pace and outcomes of the rallies.

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