Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Daniil Medvedev vs Alexei Popyrin Prediction

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #14
61%
VS

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #24
39%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 53.6
ELO Rating: 3417.1
Glicko2 Rating: 2119.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 111.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 32.8
Clay: 35.9
Grass: 40.9
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 87.9

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 35.9
ELO Rating: 1277.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1610.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 94.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.4
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 13.1
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev

  • Last Match: vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Toronto 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Corentin Moutet (1-2) hard Washington 145 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (2-0) hard Washington 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (2-1) hard Washington 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Alexei Popyrin

  • Last Match: vs Nicolas Arseneault (2-0) hard Toronto 94 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Yibing Wu (1-2) hard Washington 157 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Fery (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jack Draper (1-2) grass London 133 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-1) grass London 151 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Alexei Popyrin
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Daniil Medvedev and Alexei Popyrin takes place in the Round of 32 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Canada, on a hard surface. Daniil Medvedev is predicted to win with a probability of 60.58%, while Alexei Popyrin's chances stand at 39.42%. The total number of games anticipated in this encounter is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, currently ranked 14th, exhibits a solid form index of 53.58 and an Elo rating of 3417.09, indicating a robust performance baseline. His fatigue level is at 111 minutes, which might affect his stamina during the match. With a surface strength index of 32.80, he is well-equipped to handle the hard courts. His mean serve index of 96.71 is marginally higher than Popyrin’s 96.36, providing him an advantage in service games. Additionally, his mean return index of 87.87 significantly exceeds Popyrin's 86.71 by over 5 points, suggesting a strong ability to challenge Popyrin’s serves. On the other hand, Alexei Popyrin, ranked 24th, has a lower form index of 35.88 and an Elo rating of 1277.93, which reflects a less consistent performance. He has a cumulative fatigue of 94 minutes, slightly less than Medvedev, but still noteworthy. Popyrin's recent performances have been mixed; he won against Nicolas Arseneault in Toronto but struggled in Washington, losing to Yibing Wu and Arthur Fery. Medvedev’s recent form is more promising, having secured a straightforward win over Dalibor Svrcina in his last match.

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev holds a clear edge due to his superior statistics in serve and return indexes, coupled with a higher rank and better recent performance. A key factor to watch will be Medvedev's ability to capitalize on Popyrin's service games, as his return game could prove decisive in gaining early breaks.