Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Mubarak Shannan Zayid vs Alexei Popyrin: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mubarak Shannan Zayid

Rank: #1000
18%
VS

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #50
82%
Expected Total Games: 22.4
Predicted Winner: Alexei Popyrin

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Ranking Trends

Mubarak Shannan Zayid

  • Current #1000 None
  • 3 mo ago #1000 None
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #50 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #54 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #25 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #27 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Mubarak Shannan Zayid

Form Index: 19.5
ELO Rating: 0.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1500.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.0
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 0.0
Serve Rating: 37.8
Return Rating: 5.2

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 0.0
ELO Rating: 919.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1666.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 7.6
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 88.4

Recent Matches

Mubarak Shannan Zayid
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Doha 66 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Alexei Popyrin
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mubarak Shannan Zayid
vs
0
Alexei Popyrin
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 match in Doha, Qatar, at a 500-level hard-court event pits Mubarak Shannan Zayid against Alexei Popyrin. The model projects Alexei Popyrin to win (81.77% probability) while Mubarak Shannan Zayid carries an 18.23% chance; the expected total number of games is 22.37.

Match Analysis

There is a clear gap on paper. Zayid is ranked 1000 with a form index of 19.45, an Elo rating recorded as 0.0, no reported fatigue, and a surface strength index of 0.0. Popyrin sits at rank 50 with an Elo of 919.50, a form index listed as 0.0, no tournament fatigue, and a surface strength index of 8.54. The mean serve index separation is substantial: Popyrin (98.15) versus Zayid (37.81) — a difference of over 60 points — and the mean return index gap is similarly large (Popyrin 88.38 vs Zayid 5.23). Both discrepancies are material and favor Popyrin in serve-dominated scenarios. Recent form also tilts to Popyrin in terms of tour-level activity: Zayid’s only recorded recent match here is a straight-set loss to Quentin Halys in Doha (66 minutes), with no other recent match data provided. Popyrin’s last three recorded hard-court outings show defeats to Felix Auger-Aliassime (Rotterdam, 0-2) and Reilly Opelka (Adelaide, 0-2), and a five-set match in the Australian Open where he lost in five — showing match volume and exposure against high-level opponents despite recent losses.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.4 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mubarak Shannan Zayid - Alexei Popyrin) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Alexei Popyrin wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 10.06 total and the predicted aces skew toward Popyrin given his much higher serve index; this should drive the bulk of the expected ace count on a medium-paced hard court. The double faults prediction sits at expected double faults of 5.63 for the match; a big-serve player can produce both more aces and a few more double faults, which aligns with Popyrin’s serving profile.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Popyrin’s superior serve and return metrics, higher ranking and much stronger serve/return indices give him the decisive edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: whether Zayid can hold serve early to force longer service games and disrupt Popyrin’s rhythm.

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