Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The numbers underline a clear gulf. Pellegrino (rank 155) brings a spirited run through qualifying and early rounds in Rome, but his Elo sits at 1610.9 and his surface strength index on clay is low at 16.2. He’s accumulated 327 minutes on court this week, so fatigue will be a factor. Fils (rank 17) carries a much higher Elo of 1962.6, a stronger surface strength index (43.5) and enters fresh with zero minutes of tournament fatigue, which should leave him physically sharper for long exchanges on clay. Serve metrics are similar—Pellegrino’s mean serve index is 96.07 and Fils’s 95.31—so neither has a clear edge in raw serving numbers. However, Pellegrino’s mean return index (95.98) is markedly higher than Fils’s (85.62), a difference worth noting and reflective of Pellegrino’s recent success returning on clay. Recent form tells a consistent story: Pellegrino has won three matches this week in Rome, including two 131-minute battles and a straight-sets win over Gaston. Fils comes off Madrid, where he beat Lehecka and Etcheverry before a straight-sets loss to Sinner; overall his recent results on clay show high-level wins and one expected defeat against a top opponent.