Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Rublev comes mainly from surface fit (+3.8 percentage points) and overall strength (+3.7), with additional support from recent results by level (+3.2) and recent form (+2.1). Tabilo’s serve & return game contributes +1.4 points toward him, but not enough to overturn Rublev’s advantages. Those algorithmic drivers line up with the raw data: Rublev is the higher-ranked player (16 vs 31) with a higher Elo (1771 vs 1635) and a stronger clay profile (surface strength index 37.1 vs 23.3). Rublev’s form index (42.12) also tops Tabilo’s (32.38), although Rublev has accrued more court time here (212 minutes fatigue vs Tabilo’s 163), which is worth watching late in long rallies. Serve metrics are nearly identical—Rublev’s mean serve index 96.90 versus Tabilo’s 96.33—so there’s no significant serve edge. Rublev does, however, hold a meaningful advantage on returns: his mean return index (94.09) is more than 7 points higher than Tabilo’s (86.68), a differential that can lead to more break opportunities on clay. Recent match form underlines the contrast: Rublev arrives after two straight wins in Bastad (over Baez and Pellegrino) and a hard five-set loss at Wimbledon, while Tabilo beat Midon here but had two earlier grass-court losses.