Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 64

Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #68
30%
VS

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #13
70%
Expected Total Games: 36.4
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

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Ranking Trends

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #68 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #59 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #49 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-05-26

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #13 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #16 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 52.7
ELO Rating: 1650.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 21.7
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 93.4

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 58.3
ELO Rating: 1825.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1845.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.2
Clay: 35.0
Grass: 30.5
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Emilio Nava (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (1-2) clay Hamburg 163 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) clay Hamburg 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Kamil Majchrzak (2-1) clay Hamburg 119 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandr Shevchenko (1-2) clay Rome 168 min

Andrey Rublev
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (0-2) clay Rome 91 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-1) clay Rome 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-0) clay Rome 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) clay Rome 74 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
vs
0
Andrey Rublev
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 64 on clay, Andrey Rublev is projected to progress past Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The model gives Rublev a 69.60% chance to win versus 30.40% for Ugo Carabelli, with an expected total of roughly 36.4 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Rublev enters this clash as the higher-ranked player (No. 13) with a stronger Elo (1825.7) and a slightly better recent form index (58.32 vs 52.71). His surface strength index on clay (35.04) also surpasses Ugo Carabelli’s (21.73), suggesting Rublev is better suited to the demands of Parisian clay. Both players show identical cumulative fatigue from this event (174 minutes), so recovery and stamina will be an equal pre-match factor. Ugo Carabelli compensates with an outstanding mean return index (93.37) compared with Rublev’s 87.31 — a difference greater than five points that could make return games more competitive than rankings suggest. Serve indices are very similar (96.19 for Ugo Carabelli vs 95.28 for Rublev), so serving power alone is unlikely to separate them. Looking at recent form, Ugo Carabelli arrives after a strong straight-sets win at Roland Garros following mixed clay results in Hamburg, while Rublev has won two of his last three on clay, including his Roland Garros opener, with a loss to a top opponent in Rome in between.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.4 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Andrey Rublev) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Andrey Rublev wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 13.96 for the match and the predicted double faults total is roughly 7.14. On slow, high-bouncing clay, the expected aces are suppressed compared with faster surfaces, and expected double faults can rise as longer rallies and cumulative fatigue set in. Neither player holds a significantly superior serve rating, so the predicted aces will reflect two capable servers operating on a clay court rather than big-serve fireworks; the expected double faults may climb if rallies extend deep into matches.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.0 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.1 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Camilo Ugo Carabelli's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (35.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s higher Elo, better clay surface index and slightly stronger form give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to monitor is Ugo Carabelli’s return effectiveness — if his high return index forces Rublev into longer service games, the match could tighten beyond the probabilities.

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