Estoril Portugal Clay Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #14
84%
VS

Luca Van Assche

Rank: #78
16%
Expected Total Games: 25.1
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Why the Model Favors Andrey Rublev

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +13.7 Andrey Rublev
Serve & return game +9.3 Andrey Rublev
Overall strength +6.2 Andrey Rublev
Surface fit +5.3 Andrey Rublev
Recent form +2.9 Andrey Rublev

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 84% for Andrey Rublev. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Andrey Rublev

  • Current #14 2026-07-20
  • 3 mo ago #12 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #15 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #10 2025-07-21

Luca Van Assche

  • Current #78 2026-07-20
  • 3 mo ago #98 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #165 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #165 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #192 2025-07-21

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 50.7
ELO Rating: 1813.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1854.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 59.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 31.5
Clay: 39.7
Grass: 22.9
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 89.8

Luca Van Assche

Form Index: 38.6
ELO Rating: 1523.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 337.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.2
Clay: 14.6
Grass: 2.0
Serve Rating: 94.0
Return Rating: 88.6

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Luca Van Assche
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrey Rublev
vs
0
Luca Van Assche
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This quarterfinal in Estoril (clay, 250-level) pits Andrey Rublev against Luca Van Assche with a clear model edge to Rublev. The prediction favors Rublev 83.64% to 16.36% for Van Assche, with an expected total of about 25.05 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's margin for Rublev comes mainly from his recent record at higher levels and his edge in serving and returning. Recent record by level contributes the largest lift (13.7 points): Rublev has kept up a string of wins on clay, including straight-set victories at Estoril and Bastad, whereas Van Assche’s run has been impressive but required much longer matches. Serve & return game is the next driver (9.3 points); Rublev posts very high serve (96.96) and return (89.78) indexes, and while Van Assche’s serve (94.03) and return (88.62) are solid, they are marginally lower. Looking at raw profiles, Rublev is world No. 14 with an Elo around 1813.8 and a form index of 50.7; Van Assche sits at No. 78, Elo ~1523.3 and form index 38.6. Fatigue is a striking contrast: Rublev has logged a modest 59 minutes in the event, whereas Van Assche has accumulated 337 minutes, including two very long matches (131 and 206 minutes) at Estoril. Surface fit also favors Rublev (surface strength index 39.7 vs 14.6), adding another 5.3 points to the prediction. Over the last three matches Rublev is 3-0 (including a long three-set win in Bastad), while Van Assche is 2-1 with two marathon wins at Estoril and a prior loss in Umag.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.1 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Andrey Rublev - Luca Van Assche) +4.2 Most likely spread: +4 (Andrey Rublev wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is low-moderate: predicted aces total ~7.65 for the match, reflecting clay’s dampening effect on pace and the relatively similar serve profiles. Expected double faults are higher than aces at about 5.83, in line with clay’s longer rallies and potential fatigue — especially for Van Assche, who has heavy minutes in his legs.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.7 Most likely: 7 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Andrey Rublev's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (53.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rublev’s lead is driven above all by his recent record by level and a stronger overall profile on clay. The key factor to watch is Van Assche’s energy level — if fatigue shows, Rublev’s superior consistency in serve/return exchanges should close out the match quickly.

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