Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rublev arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 14) with an Elo of 1769.8, while Basilashvili sits at No. 117 with an Elo near 1711.7. Rublev’s mean serve and return indices (96.1 and 92.8) signal elite baseline tools, and his surface strength index (30.4) is marginally better than Basilashvili’s 26.1. Basilashvili posts a stronger form index (74.3) compared with Rublev’s 49.0, suggesting recent confidence, but his cumulative fatigue is substantial — 564 minutes on court this event versus Rublev’s 148 — which is likely to blunt that momentum on clay. The recent matchlines underline the contrast: Rublev has two straight-set wins in Rome after a loss in Madrid, conserving energy with shorter matches. Basilashvili has won three consecutive matches here but through much longer encounters (100–137 minutes), accumulating considerable court time. The difference in mean return index is notable — Rublev’s 92.8 versus Basilashvili’s 86.3 — indicating Rublev is the stronger returner by more than five points, a factor that could translate into more break opportunities on a slower surface.