Andrey Rublev vs Sebastian Baez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Rublev comes mainly from recent form and recent record by level, with those two factors contributing the largest lift toward him. Rublev arrives ranked 16 with a form index of 38.86 and an Elo of 1759.6; his tournament minutes total 153.0 and his surface strength index on clay sits at 36.58. Báez is ranked 56, has a lower form index (25.63) and an Elo of 1563.9, and has been on court more this week (180.0 minutes) with a surface strength index of 15.09 — the numbers underline Rublev’s recent superiority and better clay profile. The model also flags serve & return as a modest advantage toward Báez, but the raw metrics show both players possess strong serving and returning profiles: Rublev’s mean serve index is 96.87 and Báez’s 94.94, while Rublev’s mean return index is 93.999 versus Báez’s 89.08. Overall strength and surface fit tilt back to Rublev as well, contributing smaller but meaningful lifts to his probability. Recent match form: Rublev beat Andrea Pellegrino in Båstad (2–1) after long earlier defeats on grass, while Báez has won two clay matches here (2–0 and 2–1) after a five-set loss on grass.