Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Rublev is driven primarily by his recent results at this level and current form — together accounting for roughly 20 percentage points of the prediction — and is reinforced by overall strength, serve/return metrics and surface fit. Rublev (rank 14, Elo 1806.8) arrives off three straight wins on clay in Bastad, including a solid straight-sets victory over Luciano Darderi and a tough 3-set win over Alejandro Tabilo. His form index sits at 45.8 and his surface strength index is 39.4, indicating comfortable clay competence and consistent play entering Estoril. He has no cumulative fatigue from this tournament. Skatov (rank 163, Elo 1578.0) has shown resilience in Estoril — two wins and a loss in his last three — and posts a slightly higher form index (47.96), but his surface strength index is low at 13.33. He also carries significant tournament fatigue (412 minutes on court), which matters on slow clay where longer rallies sap energy. Serve and return indices are comparable: Rublev’s mean serve 96.94 vs Skatov 94.77, and return 89.64 vs 87.49, so neither enjoys a clear serving or returning dominance by the >5-point threshold. Recent match lengths further underline the contrast: Rublev’s wins were efficient overall, while Skatov’s route through Estoril has been physically taxing, including a 148- and 175-minute encounter.