Hangzhou China Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Arthur Cazaux vs Matteo Arnaldi Prediction

Arthur Cazaux

Rank: #84
43%
VS

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #73
57%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

Ranking Trends

Arthur Cazaux

  • Current Rank: #84 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #115 (2025-06-16)
  • 6 Months Ago: #118 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #63 (2024-12-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #88 (2024-09-16)

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #73 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #41 (2025-06-16)
  • 6 Months Ago: #35 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #37 (2024-12-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #33 (2024-09-16)

Player Metrics

Arthur Cazaux

Form Index: 63.1
ELO Rating: 836.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1578.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 7.5
Grass: 6.3
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 86.4

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 26.6
ELO Rating: 1149.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1611.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.4
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Arthur Cazaux
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jay Clarke (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Mark Lajal (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Cincinnati 113 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (0-2) hard Cincinnati 101 min

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Winston Salem 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Cincinnati 177 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) hard Toronto 166 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-1) hard Toronto 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Washington 101 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Arthur Cazaux
vs
1
Matteo Arnaldi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Arthur Cazaux and Matteo Arnaldi takes place in the Round of 32 at the Hangzhou tournament in China on a hard court surface. The predicted winner is Matteo Arnaldi, who holds a 57.36% probability of winning compared to Cazaux's 42.64%. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 84, Arthur Cazaux showcases a form index of 63.11 and an Elo rating of 836.12, indicating a solid but inconsistent performance. He has a surface strength index of 6.91, which reflects his adaptability on hard courts. Cazaux’s mean serve index is slightly higher at 96.90 compared to Arnaldi’s 95.46, but he faces a disadvantage in the return game, with his return index at 86.41 compared to Arnaldi’s 87.54, which is a crucial factor in this matchup. Notably, both players are starting this match without any cumulative fatigue, having not spent excessive time on court in their recent matches. Matteo Arnaldi, ranked 73, comes into this match with a lower form index of 26.62 but a robust Elo rating of 1148.98. His higher surface strength index (11.37) indicates better performance potential on hard courts. The recent performances for both players tell an intriguing story: Cazaux had a mixed bag at the US Open, winning one and losing two matches, while Arnaldi similarly has struggled, losing all of his last three matches but facing higher-ranked opponents, including Alexander Zverev.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi's higher Elo rating and superior surface strength index give him a notable advantage in this matchup. Additionally, his slightly better return capabilities could prove pivotal in securing crucial points. Observing how both players handle pressure during the serve games will be a key factor in determining the match's outcome.