Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fery: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Cobolli comes mainly from overall strength and a better fit to grass, with the largest single driver being his overall strength (+17.3 percentage points) supplemented by surface fit (+3.9) and serve/return balance (+3.6). Cobolli sits higher in the rankings (10 vs 114) and carries a higher Elo (1968.6 vs 1778.9), alongside a strong form index (82.5) and an excellent mean serve index (95.6). His surface strength index (38.9) also outpaces Fery’s (27.0), which helps on the fast, low-bounce Wimbledon courts. The model does note two small offsets favoring Fery: fatigue & recent workload (+5.2 toward Fery) and head-to-head (+4.0 toward Fery). Curiously both players report identical cumulative fatigue minutes (696), yet the explainability output leans slightly toward Fery on that factor. On the service/return side Cobolli’s mean return index (92.78) is just over 5 points higher than Fery’s (87.75), a difference the model flags and which should help Cobolli in the crucial return games. Both players have comparable serving profiles (mean serve indices differ by under 5 points). Over their last three Wimbledon matches both have been in winning form: Cobolli knocked out Alex de Minaur, Karen Khachanov and James Duckworth; Fery has beaten Grigor Dimitrov, Zizou Bergs and Otto Virtanen.