Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Arthur Fils comes mainly from the serve and return game, with additional weight from his recent record at this level and current form. Fils carries the higher Elo rating (1974.58) compared with Cobolli (1932.63), and his surface strength index on hard courts is stronger (48.48 versus Cobolli 33.84). Those metrics align with the model placing 4.7 percentage points toward Fils for serve and return, and 3.6 points for recent results at this tier. Rank and form paint a mixed picture. Cobolli is the higher-ranked player at 10, and his form index is higher (73.38) than Fils (66.43), which reflects his ability to grind out long wins. Cobolli has logged much more court time this week, with cumulative fatigue of 537 minutes versus Fils at 363 minutes. Fatigue is a factor favoring Fils by 1.2 points. Serve and return ratings are very similar (Cobolli serve 95.54, Fils serve 96.40; Cobolli return 88.48, Fils return 87.62), so there is no large gap in those indexes. Over the last three matches Cobolli has won three tight matches, all three setters and lengthy affairs. Fils also has three wins, but his path includes two straight sets and generally shorter matches, suggesting fresher legs.