Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Fils arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 25) with a stronger form index (71.72) and a superior Elo (1894.98). He shows solid serve (mean serve index 75.63) and an above-average return (65.34) for clay, and has zero minutes of tournament fatigue. Buse, ranked 58, posts lower form (47.75) and an Elo of 1573.61, but his mean serve index (97.27) and mean return index (91.64) are markedly higher than Fils’s — differences greater than 5 points in both serve and return that will shape tactics. Surface strength favors Fils slightly (47.50 vs 39.41), and Buse’s 83 minutes on court in this event leave him with a clear fatigue deficit. The recent form narrative supports Fils’s edge: he’s unbeaten in his last three outings, taking wins in Barcelona over Lorenzo Musetti, Rafael Jodar and Andrey Rublev across matches of 75, 112 and 100 minutes. Buse has mixed recent results — a straight-sets win over Adrian Mannarino in Madrid but losses to Corentin Moutet and David Goffin in the prior months — and his cumulative minutes suggest potential wear. That contrast — Fils’ momentum and freshness versus Buse’s powerful but possibly taxed game — frames how rallies and breaks may play out on slow clay.