Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Jiri Lehecka

Rank: #14
45%
VS

Arthur Fils

Rank: #21
55%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Arthur Fils

Why the Model Favors Arthur Fils

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +2.6 Arthur Fils
Serve & return game +2.4 Jiri Lehecka
Recent form +1.8 Arthur Fils
Overall strength +1.7 Arthur Fils
Head-to-head +1.6 Jiri Lehecka

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Arthur Fils. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Metrics

Jiri Lehecka

Form Index: 50.1
ELO Rating: 1835.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1845.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 142.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.3
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 29.0
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 87.8

Arthur Fils

Form Index: 51.0
ELO Rating: 1901.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1954.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 96.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 42.7
Clay: 40.9
Grass: 13.5
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Jiri Lehecka

Arthur Fils

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Jiri Lehecka
vs
2
Arthur Fils
Hard
2 - 1
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Cincinnati, Ohio. Round of 32 on hard courts at a Masters 1000 event. The model favors Arthur Fils to advance, with a 55.44% chance of victory versus 44.56% for Jiri Lehecka. The match is expected to be relatively short, with a predicted total of about 24.6 games.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Arthur Fils stems primarily from recent record by level, recent form, and overall strength. Fils carries a higher Elo at 1901 versus Lehecka at 1835, and his form index is marginally stronger at 51.05 compared with Lehecka's 50.13. That recent record by level factor reflects Fils handling his matches at comparable tournament tiers slightly better in the model. Lehecka still shows meaningful strengths in serve and return, which provided 2.4 percentage points toward him, supported by a high mean serve index of 97.71 and a mean return index of 87.77. Rank and fatigue paint a useful contrast. Lehecka is ranked 14 while Fils is 21. Lehecka has accumulated 142 minutes on court this week, notably above Fils at 96 minutes. That extra time could erode his advantage in tight exchanges. Both have similar surface strength on hard courts, with Lehecka at 39.32 and Fils at 42.67 on the proprietary scale. Their serve and return indices are close enough that neither holds a clear serving dominance. Recent matches underline the pattern. Lehecka beat Matteo Berrettini in Cincinnati, lost to Rafael Jodar in Toronto, and beat Alexander Blockx. Fils beat Yannick Hanfmann in Cincinnati, lost to Jodar in Toronto, and beat Cameron Norrie in Toronto.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Jiri Lehecka - Arthur Fils) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Arthur Fils wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. Positive values indicate Jiri Lehecka winning more games, negative values indicate Arthur Fils winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard court fixture is modest, with predicted aces around 15 for the match. Hard courts favor a balanced number of free points, so the predicted aces align with the medium-paced surface. The double faults prediction is about 5 total, which reflects both players having reliable serving profiles. Neither player has a significantly higher serve index, so the expected ace split should be fairly even.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.0 Most likely: 14 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The chart shows the predicted probability for each double-fault count.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Jiri Lehecka versus Arthur Fils. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Jiri Lehecka's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.0%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Jiri Lehecka's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Fils holds the edge mainly because of his recent record by level and slightly higher overall strength in the model. Watch Lehecka's accumulated fatigue and his serve and return exchanges, as those elements are likely to determine momentum in close sets.

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