Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper the matchup is intriguing: Fils is ranked 25 with a slightly higher Elo (1935.5) but Lehecka sits at rank 14 and carries a stronger recent form index (89.20 vs 84.12). Fatigue is a notable factor — Fils has accumulated 350 minutes on court this week compared with Lehecka’s 288 — and that difference could matter over long rallies on clay. Both players have modest surface strength indexes (Fils 48.56, Lehecka 46.73), suggesting neither is particularly advantaged by the Madrid clay relative to their overall level. The serving and returning profiles diverge sharply. Lehecka’s mean serve index (98.55) is substantially higher than Fils’s (76.87), a gap well over 5 points and likely to influence short-term hold probability. Equally, Lehecka’s mean return index (88.88) outstrips Fils’s (64.76) by a large margin, indicating Lehecka is the more dangerous returner in this matchup. Recent form supports both men: each arrives unbeaten in three matches here, but Fils endured a 170-minute opener earlier in the event while Lehecka’s matches have been shorter, which aligns with the fatigue figures.